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Will Hurricane Gabrielle impact the US? See path tracker, spaghetti models


Will Hurricane Gabrielle impact the US? See path tracker, spaghetti models

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and pass east of Bermuda early this week.

Hurricane Gabrielle continues to pick up strength in the Atlantic and is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Monday night, Sept. 22, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters said in an early morning advisory on Sept. 22 that Gabrielle was located about 210 miles southeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane center said strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, with Gabrielle potentially becoming a major hurricane by the evening of Sept. 22.

Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest around 10 mph; however, a turn toward the north is expected later Monday, followed by a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday, Sept. 23. The center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda tonight, the hurricane center said on Monday.

The storm's projected northeastward turn means it will move away from the U.S., so there are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, although the hurricane center said residents in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.

Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the east coast of the U.S. from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early part of this week, forecasters said. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Hurricane Gabrielle tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Gabrielle spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

NHC tracking 2 more systems in Atlantic, Tropical Storm Narda in Pacific

Gabrielle is not the only tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the NHC.

Forecasters said they are also keeping a close eye on a tropical wave located in the central tropical Atlantic that is producing "limited showers and thunderstorms" well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The hurricane center said that dry air should prevent any significant development over the next day or two, however environmental conditions should gradually become more favorable for development thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week. Forecasters give the system a 60% chance of formation through the next seven days.

Another tropical wave located well to the east of the Lesser Antilles is also producing showers and thunderstorms; however, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward by the latter part of this week. Gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands late Monday and into Tuesday; however, the NHC gives the system a low chance of formation through the next seven days.

Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Narda has strengthened slightly and has turned toward the west-northwest, away from Mexico, forecasters said.

According to an early morning NHC advisory on Sept. 22, Narda was located about 160 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane center forecasters said steady strengthening is expected, and Narda is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday, Sept. 23.

The hurricane center said Narda will cause storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts up to 4 inches, for coastal sections of southern Mexico through Tuesday, Sept. 23, bringing a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

* Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.

* Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you're evacuating or sheltering in place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.

* Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance checkup to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance don't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program.

* Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.

* Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass, and seal outside wall openings.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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