Shareholders might have noticed that CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$12.44 in the past week. Revenues were US$490m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.17, an impressive 28% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering CoreCivic is for revenues of US$1.92b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 2.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 32% to US$0.42 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$15.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CoreCivic at US$17.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 5.0% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect CoreCivic to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CoreCivic. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CoreCivic. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CoreCivic going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 5 warning signs for CoreCivic (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.