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After Harris' concession speech, who will be the first woman President?

By Hugh Cameron

After Harris' concession speech, who will be the first woman President?

Kamala Harris's planned speech on Tuesday at Howard University, her alma mater, was supposed to be a "full circle" moment as she hosted an election watch party as part of a historic bid for the presidency.

But the dream soured: that speech was cancelled and the campus instead became the venue for her concession speech on Wednesday.

"I'm so proud of the race we ran and the way we ran it" she told those gathered.

"United by love of country and joy in our fight for America's future, we did it with the knowledge that we have so much more in common than what divides us."

In the end, it wasn't enough though: Donald Trump, who secured a far more resounding victory than the neck-and-neck polling had suggested, is the United State's President-Elect.

The dream for Harris is over but there are signs that America may yet be ready for a woman in the Oval Office - it just didn't want one called Kamala Harris.

It is technically possible that the vice president could lick her wounds and come back stronger in 2028, though her sizable defeat in what pollsters predicted would be a coin-toss election will make this a tough sell for the electorate. Perhaps more importantly, it could be a tough sell for some in her party.

Professor Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Newsweek that the defeats of Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris would potentially "give some Democrats pause about choosing a third woman".

However, Sabato stressed that "candidates matter" and believes that Democrats will choose whoever has enough talent.

Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics, said that the party will "at least have women in the mix in primaries".

"Women are positioned and well-positioned to run for the presidency now in ways that they weren't before," she said.

A last-minute call-up, Harris was forced to campaign against the backdrop of a tough economic and geopolitical situation, but was nevertheless able "to run a very effective campaign," according to John Geer, professor of political science at Vanderbilt.

"There's very few political talents out there who could have pulled that off as smoothly as she did," he said.

At the very least, it can be said that Harris's defeat has not weakened the possibility of a female president in the near future.

"In the US we're catching up with the rest of the world and being comfortable with women in power," Peter Loge, former senior advisor to the Obama administration, said.

When Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, it was a sign that Americans are "capable of pulling the lever" when given this chance, according to Walsh.

Unlike Clinton, however, Harris did not dwell on the history-making aspect of her candidacy and the idea of Americans electing their first ever female Commander in Chief.

This strategy drew the admiration of Nancy Pelosi in mid-October, who praised the candidate for "running on her strength" rather than on her gender.

It proved ineffective among both men and women, however.

According to exit polling conducted by NBC News for 10 key states, Harris underperformed against both Joe Biden and previous estimates of her high female support.

Trump picked up the lion's share of the male electorate, beating out Harris 54 to 44 percent, and the results for women proved to be the direct inverse of this split. Biden won the female vote by a margin of 15 points in 2020, a damning comparison given Harris's clear attempts to mobilize this bloc around the issue of abortion.

However, this election may come to be seen less as a referendum on female presidency, and more a reflection of Americans' concerns over the economy, immigration, and their enduring admiration for Trump, rather than inherent biases against female candidates.

Voters may simply be waiting for the "right" woman to lead the country.

They will have to overcome male competitors in their respective parties - JD Vance taking the MAGA mantle or Mayor Pete making another run - but several women are emerging as candidates for America's first female president.

Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Haley put up a respectable fight against Trump in the 2024 Republican Primaries, garnering just under 20 percent of the vote.

Her Mar. 3 victory in Washington, D.C. marked the first time a woman had ever won a Republican Party presidential primary contest.

"If Donald Trump isn't on the ticket, one could imagine Haley picking up the mantle," Loge told Newsweek. "I think if the Republicans had nominated Ambassador Haley this year, she'd be measuring the drapes."

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley introduces Republican senate candidate, Dave McCormick at a campaign rally on October 30, 2024 in Pennsburg, Pennsylvania. Larry Sabato says Haley may struggle to regain the trust of her party in time for a 2028 run, having "already failed the loyalty test to the party's king."Spencer Platt/Getty Images

However, a vestige of the pre-Trump GOP such as Haley would have to contend with the party's new MAGA image. Despite endorsing Trump, Haley walked out to boos at the Republican National Convention in July, and her call for "unity" in the party was met with a mixed response.

Trump would have to "fade away" for Haley to ascend to the top of the party, according to Professor Sabato. "She has already failed the loyalty test to the party's king, and the Trump party would be unlikely to embrace her."

However, Loge said that those attempting to act as a direct substitute for Trump in 2028 will ultimately fail, creating space for a more conventional, less bombastic candidate to take the Republican reins.

"If you look at the candidates who try to be MAGA and who aren't named Donald Trump, they do poorly," he said. "Donald Trump is exceptionally good at being Donald Trump. Nobody else is that good at it."

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

The most enduring of Trump's White House press secretaries during his first term, the Arkansas governor is well-positioned to carry forward his legacy in 2028.

In her first day as governor, Sanders banned the term "LatinX" from being used in the state government, and her tenure has been defined by similar anti-woke moves that would draw cheers from the former president's base.

Donald Trump on stage with Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders during a town hall event at the Dort Financial Center, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024, in Flint, Mich. Sanders would be able to draw on her experience as a capable Trump surrogate in a 2028 run. Paul Sancya/AP Photo

Unlike Haley, therefore, Sanders would be able to paint herself as a continuation of the Trump GOP, rather than its negation. How successful a strategy this would be, however, depends on the evolution of the party itself.

While her endorsement of Kamala Harris likely burned many bridges with the GOP, Liz Cheney is still a Republican at heart, and has aspirations of taking her party back to its roots.

"I think Representative Cheney is looking for a Republican Party that she grew up in, that so many of my Republican friends grew up in, and she is not done," Loge told Newsweek.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, right, during a town hall at Sharon Lynne Wilson Center for the Arts in Brookfield, Wisc., Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. Cheney's endorsement of Harris would complicate her efforts to lead the Republican ticket in 2028. Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

However, whether this aspiration would lead to a run for the Oval Office, or any elected position, remains in doubt.

"She's young. She's smart. She's great to talk to. She's funny. She's insightful," Loge said. "She has a bright future. I don't know that it's in elected office, however."

Despite never entering the contest in earnest, Governor Whitmer already garnered more interest as a potential president than any Michiganer since Gerald Ford, her popularity both state- and nationwide sparking the "draft Gretch" movement prior to Biden's withdrawal from the race.

Professor Sabato said Whitmer would "make a strong candidate for the Democrats, though it's uncertain whether as a presidential or vice presidential nominee."

"On the surface, one of the most appealing things about Governor Whitmer is that she's a governor," Peter Loge said. "Governors tend to get elected president because they run things, they can point to their state and say, I cut taxes, or I improved the schools, or I did a thing."

With an established position in her party and state, and the proven policy acumen to boot, the self-described progressive Democrat stands out as a solid bet come 2028.

"Amy Klobuchar should not be underestimated. She's talented," Professor Geer said, while Peter Loge described the Minnesota senator as one of her party's "rising stars."

Klobuchar beat out Republican Royce White for a fourth term in the Senate on Tuesday, handing her the Democrats one of their few sighs of relief in what proved a tough night for the party as a whole.

Her previous attempts to lead her party have been less promising, garnering slim support in the 2020 primaries before dropping out one day before Super Tuesday.

However, she won her state handily in 2018, racking up votes even in Minnesota's more pro-Trump regions, and her prosecutorial bona fides mean she shouldn't be dismissed as a future contender.

Few can dispute the popularity of the former First Lady. In a July Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted amid growing calls for Biden's withdrawal, Obama was the only Democrat (Harris included) to beat Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

"A lot of us here in Washington, D.C., we have a political crush on Michelle Obama," Peter Loge told Newsweek.

"She's smart. She's a terrific speaker. But I think she's made it pretty clear that she has no interest in politics."

"Michelle Obama does not want to run for office," Professor Geer said. "She's made that clear countless times."

Having turned 35 this October, there is nothing preventing the Democratic Party's outspoken socialist from making a run. When asked by Stephen Colbert in 2022, and by GQ a few months later, AOC refused to rule out the possibility.

"I think it might be a big leap for her, but I think she's incredibly popular," Loge told Newsweek.

Following the defeat of a candidate whom opponents criticized as "far-left," however, the Democratic Party may retreat to the center, a shift that would likely remove AOC from the conversation.

However AOC herself has evolved from left-wing disruptor to a more conventional Democrat - see her endorsement of Joe Biden despite his support of Israel's actions following Oct. 7.

But even if she was able to overcome centrist headwinds within her own party, Professor Geer said that the young Democrat's ideology would be a tough sell for the American electorate at large.

"She's very young, very talented," Geer said. "But she'd have a very hard time winning the national election."

Losing the popular vote - to which even Clinton could hold onto as a sign of her campaign's success - makes the case for her appeal to the American voter a difficult one.

To return in 2028 would also see her break from the almost universal path of running for the Oval Office, failing, and returning to a lower rung political position, like Mitt Romney, John McCain and John Kerry, or shunning the political limelight altogether, and embarking on a more lucrative, less demanding career in public speaking, as with Hillary Clinton.

If Harris chose to break this mold in 2028, she would have to contend with the inevitable "lame duck" label, but four more years of a Trump presidency - fresher in Americans' minds than during this cycle - may provide her with more ammunition next time around.

Speaking to Newsweek prior to the election, Geer felt that the "immediate money" would be on Harris as the party's next nominee if she lost.

"The blame for the loss may well be placed more on Biden than on Harris," Professor Sabato added. "It's hard for a party's candidate of any gender to win when the incumbent party's president has job approval ratings in the 30's and low 40's."

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