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Opinion: A Keystone notion for Trump but still a mostly a pipeline dream


Opinion: A Keystone notion for Trump but still a mostly a pipeline dream

If you're going to the White House, you might as well bring a shiny gift. U.S. President Donald Trump likes the idea of the Keystone XL pipeline. Why not dangle it in front of him?

Prime Minister Mark Carney doesn't have an actual project to put forward. Keystone XL has been dead for years and it's not clear that any investor would want to take a gamble on reviving it.

From Mr. Carney's point of view, raising the topic of the pipeline with Mr. Trump was a way of talking about the benefits of energy and economic co-operation. It highlights that fact that Canada has long been selling cheap oil to the United States. It's a way to say trade with Canada can be good for U.S. business. And good for U.S. energy security.

So Mr. Carney brought it up in closed-door meetings with the U.S. President and the President was receptive, according to a source with knowledge of the meetings. The Prime Minister wasn't pushing an active project so much as raising a possibility. It's an idea that might just put a light in Mr. Trump's eyes.

Mr. Trump likes Keystone XL. He likes the idea of reviving a project killed by predecessor Joe Biden. He said as much in a post on his Truth Social social media platform in February, when he promised the Trump Administration would offer "easy approvals, almost immediate start" to the project - and called for the company behind the pipeline to "get it built - NOW!"

That's not so easy. The company once behind it, TC Energy Corp., abandoned the project in 2021 after then-president Biden revoked its permit. The rest of the Keystone pipeline system was spun off into a new company, South Bow Ltd.

South Bow explores increasing crude exports after Carney raises Keystone XL revival with Trump

And investors beware: Former president Barack Obama rejected Keystone XL, but the idea was revived during Mr. Trump's first term, then quashed again by Mr. Biden. Even in Mr. Trump's first term, the support of a Republican president didn't stop opposition in staunchly Republican areas along the proposed route.

Still, it's an intriguing idea that piqued interest in Canada's business community on Wednesday.

It wouldn't represent the diversification of export markets that Mr. Carney promised - it would increase, not decrease, Canadian reliance on U.S. markets.

But what if advancing it made Mr. Trump more willing to make a deal in a sector such as steel or autos? It's not clear Mr. Trump would go for such a swap - or if it's feasible - but in that case, it could meet less political opposition in Canada. Mr. Carney's government might try to package it alongside other resource projects, such as liquefied natural gas terminals, aimed at markets in Asia.

For Mr. Carney, Keystone XL might not carry some of the domestic political problems of other routes.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is demanding an oil pipeline to the northern B.C. coast be put on the federal government's list of national projects that will be fast-tracked, but B.C. Premier David Eby has argued that would disrupt Indigenous buy-in for several projects that are far more advanced.

From the East and West, Alberta's pipeline ambitions face pushback

With Keystone XL, Alberta would get a pipeline, and it wouldn't go through B.C. And Keystone XL has already gone through a lot of hoops, obtaining approval after a decade-long regulatory process. A route was chosen. There was even pipe in the ground.

But that doesn't mean that it is ready to go.

There had been rights-of-way along the route that have now expired, said Richard Masson, executive fellow at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy and former chief executive of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. In the U.S., the government used eminent domain powers to provide use of land along the route that have lapsed. And the oil companies that had signed up to ship bitumen through Keystone XL are no longer committed.

"There's no proponent. No right of way. No shippers," Mr. Masson said.

The biggest problem, in Mr. Masson's eyes, is that U.S. politics has killed Keystone XL twice and a potential investor would have to fear it could happen a third time when the next president is elected. "In my mind, you would need an explicit guarantee from the U.S. government for any losses," he said.

For the moment, it's a notion raised to pique some interest from Mr. Trump. But now the Prime Minister is on the record mooting possible options for an oil pipeline.

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