France correspondent Scott Burton runs the rule over this year's Arc contenders and gets insight from each camp
A field of 17 runners will go to post for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday, but who will come out on top in Europe's biggest Flat prize worth a whopping €5 million? Read our runner-by-runner guide featuring top quotes and star ratings for the big race live on ITV at 3.05pm.
Scott's view: For a horse with high-class form over further, Giavellotto showed a real turn of foot to win the Hong Kong Vase in December, while Andrea Atzeni is flying halfway around the world to ride. But every drop of Parisian rain surely lessens his chance.
Trainer's view: Marco Botti: "Last week I was very hopeful about his chance at Longchamp owing to the dry weather and prospect of good ground. Sadly, the weather has changed and it seems there's plenty of rain on the way. I wouldn't want it too soft for him."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: Not totally out of it on ratings and stall nine is just about workable. But virtually all of his best form has been in the spring at the Curragh and this is a very different test. Should enjoy the slower ground at least, but that probably won't be enough to offset the better claims of others.
Assistant trainer's view: George Murphy: "We had him fairly straight for Leopardstown but he'd been off for a while and you'd have to think he'll come on for it. There's rain to come, which will suit. The more the better."
Star rating **
Scott's view: He'll always be Ace Impact's half-brother. But he's never looked like inheriting enough of the family brilliance to figure in a line-up like this.
Assistant trainer's view: Jean-Rene Dubosc: "The determining factor in running him is the forecast rain, which will suit him. He'd been off for 98 days when he ran down the field in the Prix Foy and is in great form now."
Star rating *
Scott's view: Not a totally dissimilar profile to Andre Fabre's most recent Arc hero, Waldgeist, in that he produced Group 1-winning form in the spring over a distance short of his best. Wasn't fully wound up in the Prix Foy and might reverse form with Byzantine Dream, but a supporting role might be the best hope.
Trainer's view: Andre Fabre: "He likes the course and he probably wasn't fit enough when he was beaten last time in the prep race, as I'd given him a break after Sandown. He's in better shape than he was in the Prix Foy. He's well drawn and should be there."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: Third last year as a three-year-old and has the imposing build to really thrive at four. Might well prove to be the best of the older colts, but it was very hard to imagine he could concede 10lb to stablemate Minnie Hauk even before he got a poor draw in 14.
Trainer's view: Aidan O'Brien: "We're very happy with his work since the Foy. He seems in very good form. We felt that maybe he was a week behind last time and two weeks behind for his first run back at the Curragh, and we think he's nearly caught up."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: Has been well supported this week - possibly on account of his association with Oisin Murphy - and his defeat of Sosie in the Prix Foy showed he's effective at a mile and a half, despite having made his two previous starts at staying trips. But he needs to take another step forward to win and stall 15 is a near-mortal blow to his chance.
Trainer's view: Tomoyasu Sakaguchi: "He probably doesn't want really heavy ground, although we can't be sure because he's never encountered it. Since winning his trial he's improved again. I think he's gone up several levels. He remains a fresh horse and is in very good shape."
Star rating **
Scott's view: Lightly raced after setbacks at both three and four and there's unlikely to be a better-looking horse on parade, while her talent has been there to see when she has made it to the track. The form of her Group 1 win at Deauville is only okay, but she did it easily and will be even better suited by 1m4f. Overpriced and shortlist material.
Trainer's view: Francis Graffard: "She'll love the trip and is in the form of her life. I hope we don't get really deep ground because that would blunt her chief weapon, her turn of foot. I also hope there's a decent pace on so she can use her long stride."
Star rating ****
Scott's view: Kept in training with this one day in mind all year and, although she hasn't won this term, the form of her King George second highlights her credentials. Stall ten is borderline and I fear one or two might just have the legs of her late on.
Jockey's view: Colin Keane: "She's worked very well with the cheekpieces on and it won't be a hindrance for her. She was arguably at her best last year on Champions Day on proper soft ground and she hasn't got that so far this year so hopefully it keeps raining at Longchamp. She's very straightforward and is usually good from the stalls."
Star rating ****
Scott's view: The leading chance of keeping the prize in France is a filly who feels more at home around Longchamp than almost any other horse in the line-up. She won the Vermeille easily and, with the pressure off to get that Group 1, connections appear relaxed. The only major spanner in the works is stall 12, which is just enough to put me off a win-only investment.
Trainer's view: Christophe Ferland: "She handles soft and even heavy ground and she's come out of her run in the Vermeille in great shape, having won well. I've had no problems in the build-up and I'm not too worried by stall 12 - winners have come from there in the past - so now it's up to Maxime Guyon."
Star rating *****
Scott's view: Who is the best three-year-old colt in France? A case can be made for both Cualificar and Leffard, but my suspicion is that Daryz will come out on top among that trio. If that turns out to be correct - and if he handles the occasion - he could go very close to winning. He has never run over 1m4f but connections believe he'll thrive at the trip, while stall two is a huge bonus.
Trainer's view: Francis Graffard: "If you compare his form against Bay City Roller [in the Prix Eugene Adam] with the Prix Niel, he should be there. He has a good turn of foot, should be happy at a mile and a half on pedigree and won't be bothered by soft ground."
Star rating ****
Scott's view: The positive case for him rests on the withering turn of foot he produced to cut down Trinity College in the Grand Prix de Paris, although the runner-up was immediately offloaded to Australia by Coolmore. Course-and-distance form is a big plus but he still has a couple of pounds to find with Daryz. Well drawn in six.
Trainer's view: Jean-Claude Rouget: "He has the action of a good-ground horse but moved well on soft ground in his final work. We treated a minor back problem after the Niel and he's in better form now."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: A Group 1 runner-up after chasing home Camille Pissarro in the Prix du Jockey Club, he was clearly still showing signs of having enjoyed his summer holiday when third to Alohi Alii at Deauville in August. Much better when catching Bay City Roller late on in the Niel and it was always Andre Fabre's plan to give him two runs to get match-fit. Stall eight is fine for William Buick and it would be no surprise if he finished in the money.
Trainer's view: Andre Fabre: "I was pleasantly surprised to see him quicken so well [in the Niel]. He's got some good experience, he's laid-back and shouldn't be bothered by the atmosphere, so I'm quite confident."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: Of the rank outsiders, he's one who could outrun his odds. He's maintained a pretty high rating this season in four defeats and has proven form on deep ground. Will need to improve for a step up in trip - which is far from guaranteed on pedigree - but if you wanted to throw a few pennies at a really mad one, I wouldn't put you off him.
Jockey's view: Shane Foley: "He's in great form and has really come out of his run in the Irish Champion Stakes in great shape. I know it's the Arc, but the rain has hit Longchamp and he will love every drop of it that falls."
Star rating **
Scott's view: While all three Japanese runners won their trials in decent fashion, the Derby winner's domestic form is a cut above his compatriots and, if there's a horse capable of winning by clear water, he could be the one. But his draw in 17 is hugely compromising, especially given that he's usually ridden close to the pace. In 2012, Orfevre looked like overpowering his rivals from 18 but the effort told late on. If Croix Du Nord is to become Japan's first Arc winner, he'll have to prove himself out of the very top drawer to do so.
Trainer's view: Takashi Saito: "He's been very well since his trial, which took less out of him than running in the Satsuki Sho [2,000 Guineas] ahead of the Derby. He's a little finer than the typical Japanese horse, a trait I think he gets from his sire, Kitasan Black. But he has a lot of strength and power."
Star rating ****
Scott's view: The one Japanese-trained runner on whom the draw gods have smiled kindly. Went from being a 100-1 shot to a genuine contender when blowing away a decent field in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano and has enjoyed seven weeks to prepare since that success, avoiding the three-week turnaround that has been a problem for some Japanese runners. If he breaks on terms he might easily be the pace angle in the race and a big run is far from discounted.
Trainer's view: Hiroyasu Tanaka: "He's got much keener in his work since his trial win but in a positive way. He's adapted well to the French tracks and is definitely stronger and much better balanced than when he ran at Deauville."
Star rating ***
Scott's view: Forget any notion that stall one is a trap, with the 'open stretch' cutaway rail offering an escape route for Christophe Soumillon if required. Has been flawless this season and gets all the allowances as a three-year-old filly, so it's not hard to see why she has hardened as favourite. But the suspicion remains she might not have encountered the strongest opposition to date.
Trainer's view: Aidan O'Brien: "We're very happy with her. She's done everything we've asked of her since York. Christophe sat on her last week. That was his first time on her and he was very happy. She's happy to go forward and really uncomplicated. She's a good, strong traveller."
Star rating ****
Scott's view: Rewatching her Prix Vermeille performance behind Aventure, it was noticeable how much Gezora bends her knee, so it's quite possible she'll improve for some ease underfoot. Will be among the smallest in the field, but she's so straightforward and easy to put anywhere in a race that it's hard to think Tom Marquand won't get to ride the race as he wants, even though stall 13 narrows his options considerably.
Trainer's view: Francis Graffard: "She has plenty going for her, with her aptitude for the trip, the fact you can park her up anywhere in a race and the allowances for the three-year-old fillies. She's in great form and soft ground won't bother her."
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