It's safe to say, there is discontent wherever you look in Welsh Labour. It is a party in government in Westminster, a party with 26 years of power in Wales, which is in real trouble. There is less than six months to go until the Senedd election in Wales, an election which right now, looks like it'll be seismic and if it goes the way currently projected, could even end the careers of not just one but two of the party's leaders.

We now have consistent, Welsh-specific polling which projects Labour will come third in the national election here in Wales in May.

But this isn't just about hypothetical polling any more, the most recent electoral test in Wales showed that voters are moving away from Labour both to the right, in Reform UK, but the left and Plaid Cymru too. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here.

There is, as you'd expect, a postmortem underway and the overriding emotion campaigners report back of having heard on the doorsteps was "frustration" at change happening at all, and if it is, the pace of it. In Caerphilly specifically, but not uniquely in Wales, it was on three levels - the local council making unpopular decisions, Welsh Government and UK Government.

Labour know it needs something tangible for voters to see, but also for campaigners to talk about. What has happened, like free prescriptions or organ donation, may have been under their watch but they were a long time ago.

Some speak of "real heartache" it's got to this. Another more bluntly summarised the situation as a "sh*tshow".

The by-election result in Caerphilly did very little to ease any worries. The disclaimer we made throughout the campaign is that that was a by-election, it was on the "old" constituency boundaries and electoral system that will both be irrelevant from May.

But there is an academic theory that people will go out and vote when there is something at stake. In Caerphilly the turnout was high, more than 50%, higher than the average we've ever had before in a full devolved election, showing the people there felt something was indeed at stake.

However, there is no way to sugarcoat it, Labour got an absolute thumping. Their vote in Caerphilly plummeted.

Being under the Labour umbrella does not mean everyone has to agree, it would be naive to suggest that, and each person you ask comes to it from a different way, with their own agenda, but some common themes have developed as I asked what went wrong, and whether things can be turned around in six months.

On the night, I asked Alex Barros-Curtis, the MP campaign lead and man Labour put up for media throughout the campaign what went wrong. They needed, he conceded, to talk more about h3ow things were better under Labour, and the things being done that were helping with everyday life.

Polling which came out mid-election campaign did not help, he said.

There was a national YouGov poll, and a Caerphilly-specific one by public affairs company Camlas, both of which said Labour would get a hammering. Few suggest it would have completely changed the result, but it did - repeated sources said - convince those who wanted to stop Reform UK taking their first elected seat to back Plaid Cymru.

That conversation took place somewhere around 4am though, so what have we learnt since?

There is a postmortem happening in Labour, there's no doubt but the broad consensus is that it was a bad night, that there are multiple issues to overcome and they are being punished on multiple fronts.

The traditional approach for a by-election is that UK Labour comes in and runs the campaign. That won't, they say, be allowed to happen in May, it will be Welsh Labour and Eluned Morgan that picks the tactics, she will revert to her "red Welsh way" approach, of trying to hammer home what the Welsh Government has, and will do in Wales, for the people of Wales on her terms, not having the UK party determining the approach, and that may be a relief to critics of the approach taken in Caerphilly.

More than one person - and the entire audience of Have I Got News For You - was shown the clip of the Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe walking down the street, his jacket being swung over his shoulder in slow motion in a 21second clip as a voiceover of actor Pedro Pascal saying: "Daddy is a state of mind, you know what I'm saying, I'm your daddy" I can be your daddy" fading into "Father Figure" by George Michael. The caption read: "vote for this total diva on Thursday October 23".

There was real confusion why time, resources and effort was put into making videos asking MPs being asked whether they preferred Chappell Roan or Sabrina Carpenter, or a parody by Carolyn Harris, the Welsh deputy leader mocking Reform to a Sabrina Carpenter track.

This has divided the ranks - for some, the video is just painful to watch, and any attempt to emulate US-style campaigns doesn't translate to the streets of Caerphilly in the same way - for others, it's right Labour, or any political party tries to engage with voters, who are often younger, via the apps or platforms they use and unless you're one of those they're targeting - aka under 30 - you shouldn't discuss what makes a good TikTok video.

Few told me they thought the Daddy video was however, good on any level.

Another real source of anger was how, in the week before the campaign the party published a leaflet saying it was a two-horse race. By then, they were acutely aware it was not. They told voters they had a chance of winning, they did not.

The graphics and leaflet quoted a poll showing Reform was on 28%, Labour on 26% and Plaid on 25%. It was a Beaufort poll, "broken down by region, South West Wales and the Valleys". The sample size was a small 533, almost half the figure academics would say is statistically safe. That region of "south west Wales and the Valleys" that is neither a constituency nor region in the Senedd, nor in Westminster, and it certainly wasn't about the place the election was taking place.

Labour was hammered online for using it, and within its own ranks there were serious questions about who thought it was a good idea.

It didn't just irk their own party, but it gave the impression Labour would rather Reform win the seat than Plaid Cymru, something that was noted by their members and politicians - the very ones Labour may well need help passing a Welsh budget in coming weeks, or forming a coalition with in a few months.

All this feeds into very real fears with Labour that what happened to Scottish Labour is now going to happen to the party in Wales.

In the 2015 general election, Labour in Scotland lost 40 seats and was crushed by the SNP. The recovery from which was not speedy. In its later review of what went wrong for Labour, BBC Scotland's headings include; "Infighting and turf war with Westminster" and "Obsessed with the SNP" One MP said in that: ""Frankly Scottish Labour could start a fight in an empty house".

Ian Gray, the Labour leader who lost the election, said: "The difference between what happened to us in 2011 and what had happened four years before, was largely about a very successful SNP campaign....we should've seen it coming because the roots of it actually lay back in previous elections."

Any one of those could be said by a Welsh Labour politician or will be if the polls are right come May 8. There is real confusion about how things are so bad for Labour right now. Some is global forces, but each own goal is met with disbelief by those who simply want a party with experience, and resources to sort it out.

Wales' First Minister Eluned Morgan has staked her political capital that she is doing things differently for Wales, and yet there is a real problem with being able to spell that out simply and succinctly, or that she isn't as restricted as her predecessors were shouting at the UK Government, then run by a different party, about change.

To many bystanders, she is shouting into the ether just as much as happened in the days a Welsh Labour administration in Cardiff couldn't get concessions from a Tory London government, with her party colleagues in Number 10 not listening to her pleas about further devolution, HS2 funding or changing the Barnett formula.

The Welsh Government, and Welsh Labour is clear it wants more devolution, but it has a Welsh secretary sat at the cabinet table who does not, and figures around Keir Starmer himself who do not.

One thing that came through on the doors in Caerphilly was how unpopular Keir Starmer was but there are plenty in the Welsh parliamentary group has incredibly close links to the Prime Minister, personally and in his wider staff, many with ministerial jobs, and those relationships limit those honest conversations that Labour seems to sorely need.

Welsh MPs have made a plea in a meeting after the Caerphilly by-election with those closest to Keir Starmer that there needs to be more done in terms of the communications that come out from London. MSs say it's not just the comms but the content too.

"I just don't understand who's advising them," someone told me of Downing Street, an almost mythical entity people speak of being totally disconnected with colleagues, and voters. They are worried about how the budget will play out next week, and whether the change in the new voting system, where people are asked to vote for a party, not an individual will impact them.

More than one person told me of a voter saying "I would vote for person x, but I don't want to back Labour".

The sense of exasperation is acute, almost no matter where you look in the party, there are repeated examples of Labour messing up things in its own gift.

Look at potential Senedd candidates. As we sit here, in mid-November, less than six months out from an election, not all candidates are selected for Labour - the party which decided to change the system, and even its own people involved simply cannot understand why.

Each party has had to select candidates and then rank them, they can put up to eight in each of the 16 constituencies, and Labour hasn't completed that process despite all the evidence being that a long run-up, something like two years, is needed for campaigners to be out there, knocking doors, shaking hands, to be the sort of timescale needed in a marginal seat.

Those in limbo have gone through a range of emotions - bemusement, anger, frustration - and still some in the final consituencies are waiting to hear.

Even the party's most optimistic, most loyal, cannot answer how Labour is so far behind with selecting candidates. Yes they had to wait for boundaries to be finalised, yes there was a by-election to fight in Caerphilly, but the other parties had those too and have still got their lists, or at the very least, top candidates confirmed.

The most optimistic of the numerous sources I spoke to for this piece said, at best, they will do better than the polling, but no-one expects a return to the sort of numbers Welsh Labour has had before. There is some hope being taken by Labour types by the fact Reform didn't win in Caerphilly, they too say it is relative-Plaid heartland, which isn't the same in all constituencies they will fight in May.

There is, even those closely connected with the campaign concede, a "mountain to climb" for Labour to exit May's election as victors, their hopes are now they can secure enough seats to be there at the table to have influence on whoever forms a government once the votes are counted.

Labour sources say they know that if by May they can prove to people things have got better, whether due to Welsh Labour or UK Labour, they have a shout.

That right now is a heck of a mountain to help, not just because time is against them, but change often costs money. There is one other big issue for Labour - and all politicians - how much do people care?

"People aren't interested in politics, they're more interested in who won Celebrity Traitors," someone surmised.