Oregon likely punched its ticket to the College Football Playoff with its win over USC in Week 13.
ESPN's model gives the Ducks a 97 percent chance of getting into the dance ahead of Saturday's showdown with Washington, and it only drops to 89 percent if the Huskies pull the upset as a 7-point underdog.
The Ducks won't want to leave it to chance, though.
Oregon can also clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship with a win and an Ohio State loss to Michigan, though the result of that game likely will be known before we get underway in the Pacific Northwest.
Oregon's win over USC was really its first real statement of the season. The Ducks had some notable wins over Penn State and Iowa, but they barely eked out those victories. And looking back on them, they aren't the type of results that would put the Ducks in the same elite tier as Ohio State, Indiana, or Georgia.
The win over USC does change that tune.
Although I still remain skeptical that Oregon has the offensive chops to go up against the best defenses in the country when we get into the Playoff, it would be unfair to suggest their No. 5 ranking in the AP Poll and No. 7 ranking in the College Football Playoff table is flattering. SP+ has the Ducks as the No. 4 team in the country, which also seems appropriate.
The real question is not about where Oregon should sit in the pecking order nationally, but how wide the gap is between the Ducks and unranked Washington.
The Huskies (8-3, 5-3) are a tough team to read. The numbers suggest they're one of the best teams in the country that's not in the mix for the College Football Playoff, but they've had a couple of wonky results. A loss to Wisconsin in Madison is a tough look, and the Huskies also failed a litmus test in Ann Arbor.
Washington's best performance, undoubtedly, came in a rout of Illinois, but the Illini have themselves had a season with mixed results.
Perhaps the best way to approach the Huskies is to just slap the high-ceiling, low-floor label on them.
The way the Huskies reach that high ceiling is with their defense, which grades out as the 13th-best in the country, according to SP+.
Washington's offense lags behind the defense, and it'll be tough sledding on Saturday afternoon, even at home. Oregon's offense often gets the credit for its success, but the Ducks' work without the ball is what's vaulted them to contender status. Oregon boasts the fifth-best defense in FBS, per SP+.
Washington vs. Oregon feels like a rivalry game that should be dictated by prolific offenses, but this one sets up as a defensive chess match.
Throw in the fact that there's a chance that we see the Ducks take their foot off the pedal in the second half if this game is wrapped up. That'll help us get to the window with an Under 51.5 ticket.
The Play: Under 51.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.