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See spaghetti models, possible path for Tropical Storm Melissa. What can Florida expect?

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See spaghetti models, possible path for Tropical Storm Melissa. What can Florida expect?

AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva shared the latest updates on Tropical Storm Melissa and if it could impact the United States.

* Tropical Storm Melissa continues to keep forecasters guessing but rapid intensification is expected.

* Melissa could become a Category 4 hurricane.

* See the latest spaghetti models.

* Don't wait until forecasters are certain; make preparations now, just in case.

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to keep forecasters guessing on where it will go and how powerful it could get.

The latest forecast predicts Melissa will reach Category 4 strength early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

➤Track Tropical Storm Melissa

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On Thursday, Oct. 23, Melissa continues to crawl and move erratically as it maintains tropical-storm-force winds. It's expected to bring "significant flooding and destructive winds" to islands in the northern Caribbean, especially Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba, according to AccuWeather. Some localized areas could see up to 30 inches of rain.

Don't expect Melissa to stay quiet for much longer.

"Rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and early next week," the Hurricane Center said, adding "as Melissa intensifies, its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric."

Will a tropical storm or hurricane impact Florida? It's possible but still unknown at this time.

"The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

"The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

As for areas farther to the north along the U.S. East Coast, there is some risk of impacts, even if the center remains at sea, AccuWeather said.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa. See expected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Tropical Storm Melissa

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa and where is it going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?

Not at this time, but there is a "significant spread" in the models on where Melissa will go and how strong it could get, the National Hurricane Center said.

The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys., according to AccuWeather.

Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.

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NWS weather radar shows storms affecting Florida

Latest weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

No watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa are in effect for Florida or the U.S. as of Oct. 23.

Excessive rainfall forecast across Florida

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What's next?

We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.

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