Walt Disney (DIS) has been drawing attention this week after its Experiences segment reported stronger results for the third quarter. Higher guest spending at theme parks and resorts stood out, but what really caught investors' eyes were plans for Disneyland Abu Dhabi, Disney's first park in the Middle East and one being built without significant upfront spending from Disney, thanks to local partner Miral. In addition, two new cruise ships are set to launch later this year, including their largest vessel and a long-awaited debut in Asia, prompting market watchers to reassess the company's growth trajectory. Putting these updates into context, Disney's stock has gained around 35% over the past year, reflecting renewed optimism after a challenging period. Momentum has picked up in recent months as investors digest both the company's international expansion plans and positive beats on recent earnings. Still, growth has been uneven across segments, and long-term returns have lagged the broader market, making this latest move especially interesting as Disney tries to reassert itself as a growth story. After a year of climbing share prices and bold expansion plans, the question now is whether Walt Disney is trading at a bargain or if investors are already counting on future growth. Is this a real buying opportunity, or is everything already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.9% Overvalued

According to Bailey, the prevailing narrative views Disney as trading above fair value, citing constraints from cost pressures and competitive threats that may cap future profitability.

"In the face of an over-saturated streaming market and increasing competition from non-traditional media platforms, I believe the Direct-to-Consumer segment will experience challenges in retaining and growing its subscriber base. I am assuming that subscriber numbers, currently at 157.4 million, will see a reduction due to the loss of IPL streaming rights. This could lead to an anticipated 15 million subscribers departing over the next five years."

How can Disney's global ambitions keep pace with these sobering projections? Want to see which controversial revenue and margin assumptions underpin this value, but also what might flip the outlook upside down? The heart of this narrative lies in a few game-changing numbers and bold, discipline-testing scenarios that could redefine expectations.

Result: Fair Value of $95.94 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Disney's robust performance at its theme parks and its powerful intellectual property library could quickly boost margins and surprise even the skeptics.