The New System Joins Hurricane Rafael Now Expected To Become Near Major Hurricane...

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) -- The National Hurricane Center Wednesday is tracking a new system east of Florida that is likely to develop in the area marked in yellow on the map above. Ovals indicate where a system is likely to form and not necessarily a direction of travel. The yellow oval is very close to Florida. The system is developing as Hurricane Rafael continues a trek north in the Gulf. Here's what the NHC is saying Wednesday:

For the North Atlantic... Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rafael, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low-pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.

Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.

Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.