Hurricane Erin moved farther north into the Atlantic Sunday after brushing past the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with gusty winds, rain and rough surf. Several severe weather alerts remain in effect through Monday as outer rainbands continue to impact the region.
Hurricane Erin underwent extreme rapid intensification over the weekend, strengthening from a Category 1 storm Friday morning to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours. By Sunday afternoon, the system had weakened to a Category 3, but forecasters say it is expected to re-intensify and grow in size as it approaches the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
Track of Hurricane Erin
As of the 5 p.m. Sunday update from the NHC, Hurricane Erin was located about 275 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. The storm's minimum central pressure was measured at 946 millibars.
"At 5:00 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 68.5 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. This general motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday," the NWS said.
"Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Erin is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week," according to the NWS.
Impacts Across USVI
The core of Hurricane Erin passed just north of the U.S. Virgin Islands Saturday as a major hurricane. While the center remained north of the local islands, the storm tracked slightly farther south and west than earlier forecasts had predicted. Erin moved close enough to bring tropical-storm-force wind gusts at times and heavy rainfall to areas across the region.
Multiple weather alerts were issued, including Flash Flood Warnings for St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico and the USVI, from 10 nautical miles offshore to 19.5 degrees north latitude. The warning expired at 5 p.m. Sunday.
Other severe weather alerts included a Flood Watch, High Surf Advisory, High Rip Current Risk and Small Craft Advisory for both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These alerts will remain in effect until Monday.
On Sunday, the Source spoke with Daryl Jaschen, director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency, about storm-related impacts in the U.S. Virgin Islands following preliminary assessments across the territory.
Jaschen said that as of Sunday afternoon, power outages were ongoing on St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix, with St. Thomas experiencing the most widespread disruptions. However, officials with the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority were confident that most feeders would be restored Sunday night.
Across the islands, fallen branches were reported, but few trees were downed.
Jaschen also reported that several boats had sunk across the territory. According to information posted online, an iconic pirate ship docked in Charlotte Amalie Harbor was among the ships that sank during the storm.
Wind and Rainfall Details
Speaking to the gusty conditions, Jaschen said tropical storm-force winds extended about 160 miles from the center of Hurricane Erin. However, the strongest winds were concentrated in the storm's northeastern quadrant and farther away from the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Still, Jaschen noted that multiple rainbands swept across the islands, and some produced gusts that reached tropical-storm strength.
Regarding rainfall totals, Jaschen explained that, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands received approximately 10 inches of rain, St. Thomas received about four inches, and St. John collected roughly six inches. St. Croix -- located farther south of Erin's core -- received approximately one inch of rain.
The Source also connected with Rafe Boulon, a weather observer on St. John, who meticulously records rainfall data from his home at Trunk Bay. Boulon told the Source that he measured over four inches of rain as of Sunday afternoon.
"I recorded 4.43 inches of rain over the two days of the storm," Boulon said.
Boulon also noted that the south side of St. John was more significantly affected than the northern-facing portions of the island.
"Winds were pretty light on the north side of St. John," Boulon explained. "South-facing homes were hit harder with the stronger backside, south to southwest winds. We were very lucky that Erin passed far enough to our north that we were spared any significant damage," Boulon said.
Jaschen said that as of Sunday evening, government offices and schools would be open on Monday. However, several schools may have a delayed start, and announcements would be provided if any changes are expected.
Finally, according to information available online, seaports in the USVI are open, and airports across the territory are operational. However, travelers are advised to check directly with their airlines for the latest updates on potential delays or cancellations.
National Weather Service Information
The NWS in San Juan reminded residents and visitors that the local islands may still receive some impacts over the next day or so as Erin pulls farther away from the USVI. The NWS shared the following information Saturday regarding continuing impacts from Erin.
"Although the system continues its route to the Western Atlantic, associated feeder bands are expected to move over the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico this evening and into the late-night hours," the NWS said. "The strongest showers will continue to result in low-level flooding, including at low-lying river crossings and in small urban streams. Winds will become more southerly as the system moves north. Given the expected conditions, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Monday evening," the NWS explained.
The NWS added that weather conditions on Monday would likely be cloudy with additional rainfall, with a continued chance of flooding. Weather conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday, though very warm temperatures will affect the islands.
The NWS also urged caution regarding hazardous marine conditions, noting that seas will continue to be rough for the next few days, and there will continue to be an elevated risk of rip currents.
Looking Ahead
In addition to tracking Hurricane Erin, the NHC was monitoring two other areas across the Atlantic basin on Sunday afternoon. One disturbance was located off the east coast of the U.S. mainland, while another tropical wave was moving across the central Atlantic.
Individuals in the USVI and Puerto Rico are encouraged to closely monitor the progress of the tropical wave in the central Atlantic for any potential future impacts.
As the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, residents and visitors in the U.S. Virgin Islands are urged to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Finally, residents and visitors can find weather details and preparedness information from VITEMA.