Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C., on politics, demographics and inequality.
A substantial number of Republican voters are losing faith in science.
As of April 2020, 14 percent reported to Pew Research that they had little or no faith that scientists would "act in the best interest of the public." By October 2023, that figure had risen to 38 percent.
Over the same period, the share of Democrats who voiced little or no confidence rose much less and from a smaller base line -- to 13 percent from 9 percent.
"Empirical data do not support the conclusion of a crisis of public trust in science," Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, historians of science at Harvard and Caltech, write in their 2022 article "From Anti-Government to Anti-Science: Why Conservatives Have Turned Against Science." But the data "do support the conclusion of a crisis of conservative trust in science."
A paper published by the Journal of the American Medical Association on July 31, "Trust in Physicians and Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a 50-State Survey of U.S. Adults," by doctors and health specialists at Harvard, Northeastern, Rutgers, the University of Rochester and the University of South Carolina, reports that "in every sociodemographic group in this survey study among 443 455 unique respondents aged 18 years or older residing in the US, trust in physicians and hospitals decreased substantially over the course of the pandemic, from 71.5 percent in April 2020 to 40.1 percent in January 2024."
"During the COVID-19 pandemic," the authors write,
medicine and public health more broadly became politicized, with the internet amplifying public figures and even physicians encouraging individuals not to trust the advice of public health experts and scientists. As such, the pandemic may have represented a turning point in trust, with a profession previously seen as trustworthy increasingly subject to doubt.
In "The Polarization and Politicization of Trust in Scientists," a paper presented last week at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, James Druckman and Jonathan Schulman, of the University of Rochester and the University of Pennsylvania, write:
Consider in 2000, 46 percent of Democrats and, almost equivalently, 47 percent of Republicans expressed a great deal of confidence in scientists. In 2022, these respective percentages were 53 percent and 28 percent. In twenty years, a partisan chasm in trust (a 25-percentage point gap) emerged.
Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University, wrote by email:
Distrust of science is arguably the greatest hindrance to societal action to stem numerous threats to the lives of Americans and people worldwide. Americans died because they had read or heard that MRNA vaccines were more dangerous than a bout of Covid.
Some people suffer from poor dental health in part because their parents distrusted fluoridation of drinking water. The national failure to invest until recently in combating climate change has raised the odds of pandemics, made diseases more rampant, destabilized entire regions, and spurred a growing crisis of migration and refugees that has helped popularize far-right nativism in many Western democracies.
Trump's MAGA movement, Dallek argued,
turbocharged anti-science conspiracy theories and attitudes on the American right, vaulting them to an even more influential place in American politics. Bogus notions -- vaccines may cause autism, hydroxychloroquine may cure Covid, climate change isn't real -- have become linchpins of MAGA-era conservatism.
The most recent precipitating event widening the split between Democrats and Republicans regarding the trustworthiness of science has been the partisan divide over how to deal with the Covid pandemic, especially support for and opposition to mandatory vaccination.
Between 2018 to 2021, the General Social Survey found that the spread between the percentage of Democrats and Republicans who said they have "a great deal of confidence in the scientific community" rose to 33 points (65-32) from 13 points (54-41).