Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the central Caribbean Tuesday morning with sustained winds of 50 mph, becoming the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
Melissa is this year's first storm to form in the Caribbean. The last time the Atlantic hurricane season ended on Nov. 30 without a named storm in the Caribbean was in 1997, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
Located about 300 miles south of Haiti as of 10 a.m. Tuesday, Melissa was moving west at about 14 mph, according to the NHC.
A hurricane watch was issued for portions of Haiti, where the storm is expected to bring heavy rain that could lead to flooding and landsides through the weekend. A tropical storm watch was also in effect for Jamaica, and forecasters said those with interests in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Though NHC forecasters said there is "significant uncertainty" in Melissa's track and intensity forecasts, State Climatologist Jay Grymes said Tuesday that most hurricane models show Melissa curving back toward the Greater Antilles and into the western Atlantic away from the U.S., indicating the storm will not be a problem for Louisiana or the Gulf Coast.
Melissa had slowed significantly over the Caribbean as it developed Tuesday, and the storm is expected to sit there for the next three days or more, which adds uncertainty to where it will eventually go, Grymes said.
Still, intensity forecasts show that Melissa has a decent chance of becoming the season's fifth hurricane, potentially over the weekend, Grymes said.
The NHC's latest track forecast shows the storm turning to the northwest and then the north later this week, bringing it near the tip of Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday.
Though the Caribbean's warm waters could fuel Melissa's strengthening, wind shear and dry air near the storm could prevent rapid intensification, NHC forecasters said. The storm's strengthening is instead expected to be "slow and steady," according to the NHC.