For cinema owners, "Survive till 25" has become a mantra as one catastrophe after another has kicked their business's recovery down the road. But the end of that long and winding road is here, so will the upcoming slate result in a true box office revival?
Over the next 11 months, Hollywood will unveil blockbuster hopefuls like "Mission: Impossible -- The Final Reckoning," "Jurassic World Rebirth," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Wicked: For Good" and "Superman" with the goal of boosting the business to something resembling its pre-COVID stature. With the pandemic and strikes in the rearview, domes- tic revenues are projected to reach $9.3 billion to $9.5 billion for the year. Those returns would rank as the best post-pandemic stretch (2024 wound up at $8.7 billion, while 2023 reached $9.04 billion) though still down from before times, when North American ticket sales regularly climbed to $10.5 billion to $11 billion.
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"We're post COVID and post strikes. This is the new normal now," says Shawn Robbins, Fandango's director of movie analytics. "Especially when summer hits, there are no excuses left."
Exhibitors like Gary Westmark of Wisconsin-based circuit Odyssey Cinemas are optimistic the supply is strong enough to stabilize an industry that's been endangered for five years.
"The whole lineup is incredible," Westmark says. "In just July, there's 'Jurassic World,' 'Superman' and 'Fantastic 4.' It's hard to contemplate it not being huge."
Yet for all the expected triumphs, not every movie is destined for box office greatness -- and 2025 has plenty of question marks.
Will "A Minecraft Movie" in April be the next "Super Mario"-level smash, or will the Jack Black- led adventure join the litany of failed video game adaptations? Will "Michael," the Michael Jackson musical biopic, be closer to Queen's smash "Bohemian Rhapsody" or to Amy Winehouse's dud "Back to Black"? Does "Superman" have enough strength to reinvigorate DC? Can three Marvel movies -- "Captain America: Brave New World" in February, followed by "Thunderbolts" in May and "Fantastic Four" in July -- open across a six-month stretch without cannibalizing each other?
But wait, there's more: Was "Barbenheimer" a fluke, or will Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan's "Sinners" and Dwayne Johnson's "Smashing Machine" prove that moviegoers crave original stories? Will audiences ever tire of dinosaurs? (OK, that's an unequivocal no, so "Jurassic World Rebirth" is probably safe.)
"On the one hand, there's an embarrassment of riches," says Imax CEO Rich Gelfond. "The biggest theaters are going to be conflicted to play 'F1' or 'Jurassic,'" he says of the two big-budget films that are scheduled a week apart. "Then there will be some movies that don't live up to their promise."
Some exhibitors worry if there's enough on the calendar to entice audiences in between the four quadrant behemoths. Approximately 110 wide releases are scheduled through December -- more than 2024's slate of 94 nationwide offerings but down roughly 4% from 2019's lineup of 120, according to Comscore.
"The slate is not back to where it should be in terms of the number of wide releases and blockbusters," says Patrick Corcoran, founding member of consulting firm The Fithian Group. "There isn't a push to get back to the level and breadth, certainly from major studios, that we had pre-pandemic. That means we need a lot of movies from non-major studios."
Much of the gap can be attributed to the absence of mid-budget fare in just about every genre, from whodunits and thrillers like "Knives Out," "A Quiet Place" and "Get Out" to rom-coms and dramas such as "Book Club," "Hustlers" and "Crazy Rich Asians." Major studios experimented during the pandemic with different release plans, only to be convinced again in the value of the big screen. Yet some commercial titles, most recently Universal's "Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy," are landing directly on Peacock anyway.
"Blockbusters are the linchpins, but we can't survive off blockbusters alone," says Westmark. "Mid-level movies are going to streaming, and I'd argue that's a mistake."
One bright spot has been the resurgence of kid-friendly fare, with 2024 fielding such outsize smashes as "Inside Out 2" ($1.68 billion), "Moana 2" ($1.04 billion) and "Despicable Me 4" ($967 million). This year brings another slew of installments in tested properties: There's "Zootopia 2," as well as "How to Train Your Dragon" and "Snow White" remakes. But "Elio" will be a major test over the summer for Pixar, which has struggled recently with original stories.
"Family films are back and bigger than ever," says Gregory Quinn, managing partner of Puerto Rico-based Caribbean Cinemas. "It helps to have existing IP, but studios have been smart enough to take chances on titles like 'The Wild Robot. Franchise films of tomorrow are created with original films of today."
Theater operators have other ideas for how to reinvigorate the movie business. Regional circuits like Odyssey have leaned into curated advertising efforts rather than broad campaigns that appeal to everyone everywhere all at once.
"We're dealing with getting people back in the habit of going to the movies. It's fallen more on local theaters," Westmark says. "It's about creating good customer service and using social media to drum up excitement."
Some industry veterans believe exhibitors can afford to get creative with ticket prices. Big chains such as AMC Theatres have experimented by charging $1 to $2 more for blockbusters. Meanwhile "Discount Tuesday," when tickets run at $5 no matter the film, can rival the prime weekend days in attendance. So why limit the savings to one day? Would customers return more frequently if tickets for films in their fourth, fifth, even sixth weekends of release were cheaper than opening weekend?
"Every other industry [sets pricing] using supply and demand, but we only do it for time of day or age," says Corcoran. "There are movies that people would take a chance on -- and buy popcorn and soda -- if it were cheaper. It's keeping people away."