ST. LOUIS -- A summer wave of COVID-19 has swept across the country and into St. Louis, finding a region far better-equipped to face the virus than in years past, but still vulnerable to its disruptions.
Because fewer people are getting sick enough to require hospitalization -- and the bulk of COVID-19 tests are now administered in the privacy of peoples' homes, rather than at clinics, hospitals and pharmacy drive-thru windows -- experts are finding it difficult to judge the scale of the wave.
But it is clear that more people are catching the virus now, compared to earlier this summer.
Virus levels in wastewater, detected through sewershed testing, have jumped. BJC HealthCare reported seeing more COVID-positive patients. And officials advise the area's residents to take stock of their vaccination plans for this summer and fall.
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"I think we don't really have the full picture yet, because it is still ongoing," said Dr. Hilary Babcock, an infectious disease expert at Washington University who serves as vice president and chief quality officer for BJC. "It hasn't been a really sharp spike. ... It kind of slowly rose, and just kind of keeps slowly inching up, locally."
Babcock said BJC has seen a consistent rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 through most of the year, and the number has remained flat during the recent uptick of cases. Statewide, however, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show an increase in the portion of hospitalized patients with the virus.
Marc Johnson, a professor at the University of Missouri School of Medicine who is involved with the state's wastewater testing efforts, said there haven't been any obvious changes in the way recent virus variants behave. Whenever a new variant emerges, experts look for changes in its ability to transmit from person to person, cause severe illness and overcome built-up immunity from vaccines and previous infections.
"But," he added, "those are things that are hard to tease out. It's usually much later that you can kind of look retrospectively and see 'Oh, delta (an early variant) had much more of this or that.'"
Since the onset of COVID-19, doctors have questioned whether the virus would eventually settle into a regular, seasonal pattern like the flu, which circulates year-round but peaks between December and February.
Babcock said that including the recent summer wave, the virus is showing clear signs of seasonality, defined by a winter surge and a summer surge.
Each winter COVID-19 has spiked, to varying degrees. And the summers have also seen waves -- though last year the increase was smaller, and began later.
"People are still trying to understand what drives the surges that we have each year for all respiratory viruses, honestly, including flu," Babcock said. But the virus that causes COVID-19 seems to mutate quickly. The summer infections hit almost a year after most people have received the vaccine, new versions of which are typically rolled out in autumn.
"The summer surge kind of falls into this funny place, from an immune perspective," she said.
An updated vaccine is expected this fall, and will offer stronger protection against the most recent versions of the virus. But some people might consider getting the shots that are currently available, Babcock said, in light of the recent uptick.
During pregnancy, for instance, people are at higher risk of complications and severe illness from COVID-19, Babcock said. Plus, some of the benefits from the vaccine can be passed along to the child. People who are about to travel or who are at risk for severe complications from COVID-19 might talk to their doctors about getting vaccinated now, Babcock said, or simply exercise more precautions while awaiting the updated shots.
Babcock said she hasn't made any changes to the precautions she takes day-to-day. She has continued to wear masks in airports and on airplanes, where it's not possible to distance oneself from others.
"I think the most important thing for people is to be sure that they don't go out themselves if they're sick," she said, "and that they stay home to minimize the risk to others around them."
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