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Israel wins hostages but loses control of Gaza's fate


Israel wins hostages but loses control of Gaza's fate

It would be difficult to think of more emotional moments in the nation's history than those awaiting the return of the living hostages from Gaza, followed by the bodies of fallen hostages. These moments will overshadow the controversies, the remaining dangers, and the heavy price - in the lives of soldiers and civilians and in the lives of fallen hostages who will remain there, perhaps forever.

These moments will belong first and foremost to the hostages who return and their families, but also to every Israeli who worked for their return, and to the American team that made this possible. The warm embrace that American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner received Saturday at Hostages Square was only preparation for how President Trump will be received in Israel on Monday. Although only a few will get to meet him, behind them will stand an entire nation that owes him enormous gratitude.

Trump saved Israel from itself. From its delusions. From its fantasies. He taught it the limits of what is possible, and above all, arranged things correctly, unlike its government. Not two war objectives, with the first among them being the destruction of Hamas and the second the return of the hostages, but one clear objective - the hostages - with everything else secondary to it, and this objective itself is the absolute victory.

Over the weekend, commentators and networks extensively engaged in the debate over whether the deal is a great victory for Israel, as the government claims, or surrender to Trump and reality, as its critics argue. The truth, as always, is more complex than slogans. The deal contains many achievements for Israel - the return of the hostages foremost among them. It also contains many problems for Israel - the future of the Strip foremost among them.

Between these extremes lie primarily question marks, some of them very troubling. For example, the release of heavyweight prisoners to Gaza, contrary to the security establishment's position, which wanted them abroad or in Judea and Samaria. This didn't happen due to political opposition, even though in Gaza they will serve as Hamas' future leadership.

Or Turkey's entry as an active mediator, and effectively as a partner in the Strip's future, despite its religious-ideological proximity to Hamas (and along the way its equipping with advanced F-35 aircraft). Or the new mechanism, under American leadership, that is supposed to ensure the war doesn't resume, but doesn't guarantee how the Strip will be disarmed and who will do it. Or the IDF's future deployment, which already appears different from what the government announced.

The rapid appearance of armed men in the Strip's cities the moment the ceasefire was announced taught that Hamas is not rushing to disappear. On the contrary: it intends to fortify its position, at least in the current stage, and is already working to strike its enemies from within (primarily the clan militias that cooperated with Israel). Even if new governance is established - and right now everything is just talk - it won't disappear, but will seek to descend to the back slope and rebuild from there.

In Israel they're mistaken to think they'll be able to time the return to war, or maintain a Lebanese model of frequent strikes. There will never be patience for this, and judging from Trump's recent statements - he too is determined to move forward, and has no interest in being sucked back into Gaza's problems. Therefore, exceptional circumstances will be required to strike in the Strip: this is part of the trap into which Israel entered by itself, left with very few cards in hand.

Netanyahu claims that a better deal couldn't have been achieved at an earlier date. This is a claim impossible to prove, but it requires addressing. Israel is the one that until recently insisted on a staged deal, while Hamas declared already a year and a half ago that it was ready for a comprehensive deal, which would bundle the return of all hostages in exchange for ending the war. True, along the way Israel eroded a significant part of Hamas' military power, but it did this at the heavy price of IDF casualties, and also from among the hostages, and of deterioration of Israel's standing in the world to a dangerous and unprecedented low.

Ending the war requires Israel to take several immediate steps. The first - maximizing Trump's involvement to establish an effective mechanism that will ensure different governance in the Strip, based on Palestinians who are not Hamas. The second - maximizing that same involvement to advance the promised regional peace, which will also provide Israel with a broad front against Iranian and Shiite axis rehabilitation attempts. The third - accelerated activity to restore Israel's international standing and image. The fourth - IDF rehabilitation after two years of intensive fighting. And the fifth - establishment of a state commission of inquiry to investigate the October 7 failure.

One, about the hostages. Those who claimed that the protests and public pressure harmed efforts to free them - were proven wrong when it became clear they deeply influenced Trump to act for their return home, while he called them "our hostages." It turns out the criticism of the protests was self-serving and political, and mainly intended to release government ministers from the constant reminder of the price of their decisions.

The second concerns the confrontation that erupted on Friday evening between former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Eisenkot called Smotrich "sub-leadership," and Smotrich responded with a long tweet in which he called on him to be quiet and apologize, and accused him of politicizing the war.

It's strange that these things need to be repeated, but it seems there's no choice: on one side stands someone who lost his son and two nephews during the war, and on the other - someone who acted in every way to prolong it and boasted of torpedoing hostage deals.

And if that's not enough, on Friday an interview with Smotrich was published in Yedioth Ahronoth in which he said: "The Holy One, Blessed Be He, did us a kindness, giving us that painful slap, hard, a great disaster, with terrible and horrible results, but this slap woke us up after years we slept on our noses." If Smotrich had listened to Eisenkot's warnings on the eve of the war, perhaps this "kindness" - which cost the lives of 2,000 Israelis and the wounding of tens of thousands more - would have been prevented.

The third, about Roi Shelo, partner of Mapal Adam, who committed suicide Friday night, two years after his partner and close friend were murdered at Nova, and after his mother also committed suicide. Beyond the human tragedy, there's a warning sign here: there are many more in Roi's condition, to whom many more will now be added from among regular army soldiers and reservists leaving Gaza. This requires national emergency preparation, budgets, and manpower, and above all - attention to this quiet and dangerous war that is far from over.

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