Attention in the bond market has quickly moved from politics to inflation.

The August CPI arrives before the bell and is expected to show further disinflation.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year (US10Y) and 2-year (US2Y) both down 4 basis points, keeping the curve sloping up by a wafer thin 4 basis points. But expect a lot more moves as we get closer to the print.

In the wake of Tuesday's debate, though, ING predicts that a win by former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris would result in selling of Treasuries (SHY) (TBT) (TLT) (IEF) (IEI) (GOVT) (BIL) (VGIT) (VGLT) (VGSH).

"Of the two candidates, a Trump win would be most inflationary, and thus worse for USTs in our view," ING economists wrote in a note Wednesday.

"Tax cuts and import tariffs would add to price pressures and contribute to a higher terminal Fed rate," they said. "A clean sweep scenario, one in which Trump wins both the presidency and Congress, would allow the most drastic tax cuts."

"If he only manages to win the presidency, then the focus would be more on foreign policy, which would likely incite trade tensions with Europe and China, and undoubtedly lead to increased tariffs."

Across the pond, the impact on German Bunds would be more ambiguous, they added.

"Trade tariffs would have an inflationary impact, but at the same time would be a drag on the economy, thereby lowering rates. Heightened geopolitical tensions would also weigh on global yields. At the same time, higher UST yields will have global spillovers and also Bund yields will feel the pull-up."