As Memorial Day Weekend kicks off the unofficial start to summer, the cruise season is in full swing.
And so, too, is the start of hurricane season. Following the holiday weekend, a storm system in the eastern Pacific Ocean has been gathering strength, with Tropical Storm Alvin becoming the first named storm of the 2025 season in the region.
As of Thursday, May 29, 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Alvin was located approximately 670 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula.
The storm is moving northwest at 10 miles per hour and has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.
While the NHC anticipates the storm will dissipate within the next three days, it also illustrates a path that reaches Baja California's Cabo San Lucas in the early morning hours of Sunday, June 1.
Carnival Cruise Line's 4,126-passenger Carnival Firenze is sailing to Cabo San Lucas from Los Angeles and is expected to call on May 31, possibly being affected by bad weather due to the storm.
It will spend June 1 at sea as it returns back to California, and may still be within the storm's reach.
The storm could also affect nearby cruises sailing along Mexico's western coastline, including Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlán, which the cruise line's Carnival Panorama recently visited with up to 4,008 passengers on its way to La Paz, Mexico, on May 29.
Bryan Norcross, a FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist, says this first storm is right on schedule.
"The ocean water off the southern coast of Mexico is always quite warm, and this year the atmospheric pattern over that part of the ocean is quite conducive for development," he told national media.
Norcross agrees with the NHC's assessment of the storm, saying the water cools quickly as the storm heads north.
"If Alvin affects Cabo Can Lucas or nearby areas in northern Mexico, for example, it looks likely to be a weakening storm."
The 2025 Pacific hurricane season began in the eastern Pacific on May 15, 2025, and is forecast to be near- to below-average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This means forecasters expect fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the region.
In the central Pacific, which includes Hawaii, NOAA's outlook calls for 1 to 4 tropical cyclones this season, also reflecting a near- or below-normal year.
Read Also: Cruising During Hurricane Season - What You Must Know!
But while the Pacific outlook suggests a quieter season, forecasters are sounding a different alarm for the Atlantic, which includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean.
That season begins June 1 and is expected to be above average in both storm count and intensity. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane strength, meaning a Category 3 or higher.
Last year, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes that resulted in nearly $200 billion in damages, making it the second-costliest season on record.
The 2024 Pacific hurricane season, however, was relatively quiet, with only 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes forming, making it the least-active Pacific hurricane season since 2011.
Last year, the region didn't see its first storm, Tropical Storm Aletta, until July 4. Tropical Storm Alvin must reach sustained wind speeds of 74 miles per hour to become a Category I hurricane.