Neil Parker puts together his favorite Dolphins vs. Texans same-game parlay and explains why Dalton Schultz will play a big-role in a Texans win.
The Houston Texans can clinch a postseason berth and the AFC South crown with a home win over the Miami Dolphins at NRG Stadium in Week 15.
Houston has the benefit of extra rest and prep following its bye week, and our Dolphins vs. Texans same-game parlay and free NFL picks expect the home team to punch that postseason ticket and cover the number on Sunday, December 15.
I give the Houston Texans a bigger edge than the number in Week 15 because they're coming off their bye week and should be rested and prepped on both sides of the ball.
In particular, Houston was already a force on defense and allowed the third-lowest EPA per play from Week 6 through 13, and with the highest pressure percentage in the league, I'm anticipating the Texans giving the Miami Dolphins offense all it can handle in Week 15.
Miami hasn't traveled well, either. The Dolphins are just 2-4 on the highway (3-3 ATS), and they've also benefited from playing the second-easiest schedule per PFF.
Additionally, the Texans also allow the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (198.8), and the Dolphins have struggled to run the ball for weeks.
Miami has averaged only 59.4 rushing yards per game with the lowest EPA per rush dating back to Week 10. The strength of the Houston defense is against the pass, and I'm not convinced the Dolphins are going to be able to capitalize on the ground with Miami ranking 23rd in run-block win rate and 22nd in PFF run-block grade.
This is a great setup for Houston tight end Dalton Schultz because Miami has allowed 11 tight ends to record 30 or more receiving yards through 13 games, including five across the past four while surrendering the most receptions (32) and receiving yards (345) to the position during the four-week stretch.
Schultz is also coming off a solid Week 14 showing and has recorded 30 or more receiving yards in six of his past 10 games with an average of 3.4 receptions for 37.6 yards on 5.3 targets. Add his 10.1 yards per reception and 8.1 aDoT both checking out as solid marks, and he's positioned to clear this 29.5 receiving yards threshold against the Dolphins.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Miami kicker Jason Sanders has hit two or more field goals in nine of 13 games, and two of the outliers were when Miami No. 1 QB Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion.
Additionally, another of the games was Week 2 when Tagovailoa sustained the injury, and the fourth was the Thanksgiving blowout to the Green Bay Packers when Miami had to abandon kicking field goals altogether after falling behind 21-3 in the second quarter.
Finally, while this is an uncorrelated leg with the House -3 spread on the surface, it isn't in actuality. The Texans would love to see the Dolphins kick field goals instead of score touchdowns, and Houston allows third-down conversions at the sixth-lowest rate (34.7%), so Sanders should have multiple looks inside the dome Sunday.