The Miami Dolphins (2-6, 1-3 away, 2-6 ATS) visit the Los Angeles Rams (4-4, 3-1 home, 3-5 ATS) on Monday Night Football in Week 11 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, at 8:15 pm ET. The Dolphins, who have lost three straight one-score games, will be all but eliminated from playoff contention with another loss, while the Rams, who have won three in a row, need a W to avoid falling 1.5 games behind Arizona in the NFC West. With a ton at stake for both teams, I have crafted a three-leg, +446 Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay.
I don't usually make uncorrelated SGPs but I'm making an exception tonight by backing both the over on Tua Tagovailoa's pass attempts and the over on Raheem Mostert's rush yards, in addition to the Miami moneyline.
The first bet tonight is on Tua to throw at least 33 pass attempts. Tua has gone well over this number in two of his three full games this season, averaging 34.3 attempts in games he's started and finished. He only had 28 attempts last time out in a 30-27 loss at Buffalo, and head coach Mike McDaniel will realize that wasn't nearly enough when he watches the tape. Tua was excellent in his second game back from injury, completing 89.3% of his passes for 231 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Los Angeles has the third-worst coverage unit in the league, according to PFF, grading out at just 50.2. It remains to be seen whether Tyreek Hill is going to play, but that's part of the reason why I'm betting on Tua's attempts and not his total yards. They might not be able to stretch the field the way they do at full strength, but McDaniel will still want to pick on this terrible LA secondary.
The second leg of today's MIA/LAR SGP is Miami RB2 Raheem Mostert to go over 27.5 rushing yards. Mostert has missed time due to injury but has 214 yards in five games (42.8 YPG) and is coming off his first 1,000-yard season just last year. Last week, he had 56 yards on the ground on ten carries, just two fewer rushing attempts than ostensible RB1 De'Von Achane (12 carries for 63 yards).
The Rams' defense is better against the run than it is against the pass, but it's still not great, sitting T16th in rush defense at PFF.
Implicit in both of my first two picks for this game is that I expect Miami to have a lot of success on offense. It makes sense, then, to add the Miami moneyline into the mix. (The Dolphins vs Rams odds currently list Miami as a +120 underdog.) Yes, these teams are heading in opposite directions, record-wise. The visitors have lost three in a row while the home team has won three straight (and is 3-1 on their own turf this season). But there really isn't much of a gap between then two when they're both healthy. Miami was a playoff team last year and is basically the same group this season if Tua is healthy.
I am not saying Miami should be favored, only that I like the value on the Dolphins at +120, at it makes a ton of sense to pair with the overs I already have in today's SGP.