As the NFL season progresses, fantasy football managers are constantly navigating the ebb and flow of player performance. The key to success often lies in identifying the right moments to buy low or sell high, capitalizing on market fluctuations to strengthen your roster. This strategy becomes increasingly crucial as trends and player usage evolve weekly.
This week's edition will spotlight some players ripe for strategic moves. Whether you're looking to capitalize on a slumping star or seize the opportunity to acquire a breakout player at a discount, these insights will help you make informed decisions. We will analyze recent performances, emerging trends, and underlying metrics that could signal the perfect time to act.
Stay tuned as we dive into the top candidates for buying low and selling high, offering actionable advice to help you navigate the fantasy landscape and secure a competitive edge. With the right moves, you can turn the tides in your favor and set yourself up for a solid finish to the season.
The Houston Texans' receiving corps followed expected roles in Week 1, with Nico Collins serving as the primary target, Tank Dell stretching the field, and Stefon Diggs working underneath. While Diggs' role in the shallow areas limits his fantasy upside due to high target competition, Dell's usage suggests higher potential for fantasy production.
Dell was on the field for 87% of the team's routes, running one more route than Collins, and was targeted seven times. Despite only catching three passes for 40 yards in Week 1, Dell's underlying metrics indicate significant potential.
He was targeted deep with an average depth of 16.6 yards, showcasing his role as the team's downfield threat. Dell's 46% air yards share highlights his involvement in explosive plays, and he nearly secured a 50-yard touchdown.
Dell's role as an outside receiver continues his performance last season when he finished in the Top 20 for fantasy points per game. His five first-read targets in Week 1 further demonstrate that he is more than just a tertiary option.
With touchdowns in Week 1 going to Diggs and Joe Mixon, it presents an opportunity to grab Dell. Dell showed strong usage and downfield opportunities, making him a promising buy-low candidate. Given his potential for high-end fantasy performances, it could be a savvy move if you can acquire Dell for a low-end RB2.
WR Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen is a compelling buy-low candidate for fantasy managers. Despite the offseason narrative casting him as past his prime and potentially a fantasy liability, Allen remains a high-floor flex option. Even though he may not finish as a WR1, his consistent target volume makes him a reliable weekly starter.
In Week 1, Allen's production was underwhelming, with just 29 yards on four receptions. However, he had more targets than any other Bears receiver, highlighting his role in the offense. He is Caleb Williams' safety blanket, leading the team in targets with 11, compared to DJ Moore's eight and Rome Odunze's four.
Allen and rookie quarterback Williams also had some missed opportunities: Williams overthrew Allen on a deep route where he had beaten coverage, and Allen dropped a catchable touchdown.
As Williams and Allen continue to develop chemistry, these missed chances should translate into more significant fantasy performances. Allen's experience and the high target volume from Williams suggest that positive regression is on the horizon.
If you have players of similar value, consider trading for Allen. His role and target share make him a solid option for your flex spot, and he has the potential for significant fantasy production as the season progresses.
RB Tony Pollard, Tennesse Titans
Tony Pollard made a strong impression in his debut with the Titans, rushing for 82 yards on 16 carries and averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per attempt. He also scored a touchdown and contributed three receptions to the passing game.
His substantial share of the workload highlights Pollard's standout performance. He handled 80% of the team's rushing attempts, with 16 carries compared to Tyjae Spears' four. Additionally, Pollard played 39 snaps in the backfield, significantly more than Spears' 29. This usage underscores his role as the primary back in Tennessee's offense.
While Spears is likely to see more work as the season progresses, Pollard's dominant share of carries is a positive indicator of his fantasy value. The Titans' struggling passing game, with Will Levis managing only 127 yards and the leading receiver, Calvin Ridley, tallying just 50 yards, further enhances Pollard's appeal as the primary offensive weapon.
Given Pollard's heavy usage and the current inefficiency of the Titans' passing attack, he is well-positioned to maintain a top 10-15 fantasy running back status throughout the year.
Rhamondre Stevenson's Week 1 performance shows both promise and caution. He played 80% of the snaps, handled 78% of the team's rushing attempts, tallying 25 carries, and received a 13% target share, which matched his career-high.
However, it's unlikely he will sustain this high volume throughout the season, especially with the Patriots likely facing negative game scripts frequently. Stevenson's 28 touches in Week 1 resulted from a specific game situation that won't necessarily repeat.
The Patriots' offense remains below average, and their offensive line struggles could limit Stevenson's opportunities. Additionally, the Bengals' defense, which they faced, is known for poor rushing metrics, which might have inflated Stevenson's performance.
Antonio Gibson's presence could also impact Stevenson's fantasy outlook. Gibson is known for his versatility and ability to contribute both as a runner and a receiver, which might eat into Stevenson's workload or limit his opportunities, especially in passing situations.
While Stevenson is a solid fantasy starter, this could be an opportune moment to sell if a manager overvalues him based on his recent output.
WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The outlook for Davante Adams this season is looking increasingly uncertain. The Raiders' offense has not improved significantly from last year's 23rd-ranked scoring unit after bringing Gardner Minshew II, which is a significant concern for Adams. Last year, his high target volume was his main asset, but with the addition of rookie tight end Brock Bowers, his target share may be at risk.
Bowers, a first-round pick, has already impacted the passing game. In Week 1, he led the team with eight targets, catching six passes for 58 yards. Given that Adams has been accustomed to seeing over 170 targets in his previous seasons with the Raiders, the emergence of Bowers and a potentially more run-focused offensive approach could significantly reduce his opportunities.
With Bowers and a likely shift toward a run-heavy game plan, Adams might see a noticeable decline in production. His metrics, such as yards-per-route-run and yards-after-catch, fell outside the top 20 last season, down from the top 10 in 2022. Additionally, he struggled against elite cornerbacks.
Considering these factors, it might be prudent to consider trading Adams while his name still holds value. The combination of an inefficient offense, increased competition for targets, and his recent performance struggles could lead to a significant drop in his fantasy production. Unless he's traded in real life, try to trade him from your fantasy team.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into the season, skepticism about Rachaad White's fantasy value was already warranted, and recent developments have only heightened those concerns. In Week 1, rookie Bucky Irving played a more significant role than expected.
Despite only logging half the snaps of White, Irving led the Buccaneers' rushing attack with 62 yards on nine carries, including a notable 31-yard run. Irving's efficiency was striking, averaging 6.9 yards per carry compared to White's 2.1.
The Buccaneers' starter played 70% of the snaps in Week 1, while Irving saw 31%. This distribution is somewhat concerning, as White had a snap share of 70% or more in all but one game last season.
Irving, a rookie, has quickly made an impact in the new scheme under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who specifically chose Irving in the NFL Draft to help reduce White's workload.
Last year, White was primarily valuable in the receiving game, where he was targeted 70 times and amassed 549 receiving yards, ranking third among running backs. However, with Chris Godwin healthy and rookie Jalen McMillan emerging as a reliable target, the Buccaneers might rely less on White in the passing game.
Given Irving's potential to take on a larger role and the reduced need for White in the passing game, White's fantasy value seems diminished compared to last season. Consider trading him to a team needing running back depth or to someone who still holds him in high regard from last year.
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