Quick News Spot

NFL Week 11 same-game parlays

By Judah Fortgang

NFL Week 11 same-game parlays

Available exclusively to PFF+ members in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now -- available on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives -- how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we're also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 11, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

The Giants defense has struggled all season against both the run and the pass, consistently giving up explosive plays. The bet here hinges on Packers quarterback Jordan Love being efficient with his attempts.

For Love to deliver that level of efficiency, he will need to connect on some deep shots, and those opportunities should run through wide receiver Christian Watson. Watson has dominated man coverage, averaging 2.5 yards per route run, and the Giants run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL.

But more importantly, Watson carries a massive deep role and has dominated on vertical targets, posting a 25 average depth of target and one of the highest grades in the league on deep passes.

Luther Burden III has been one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL early in his career, averaging 2.7 yards per route run while earning targets on nearly a quarter of his routes. However, Burden has been buried on the depth chart for much of the season, which has kept his box-score production muted.

Last week brought a meaningful shift, as he played nearly half the snaps, a significant jump from his earlier usage. With some Bears wideouts banged up and Olamide Zaccheaus struggling, it wouldn't be surprising to see Burden take on a much larger role in this matchup.

And with the Vikings operating as the blitz-heaviest team in the NFL, Burden could be positioned for a sneaky good spot here.

In his small sample of snaps against the blitz, Burden has been one of the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging nearly 3.0 yards per route run and earning the third-best PFF grade in those situations.

When you combine that with our bullish Bears thesis, a Williams-to-Burden connection in a Bears win becomes an appealing angle given the market's pricing.

Building off the matchup angle, this is a terrific spot for the Eagles passing offense, and for A.J. Brown in particular, against a Lions defense that has played heavy man coverage without the personnel to hold up against it.

Brown ranks fourth at the position in yards per route run against man coverage, and Hurts is averaging nearly 0.5 EPA per play more against man than zone.

Previous articleNext article

POPULAR CATEGORY

misc

6681

entertainment

7183

corporate

6023

research

3586

wellness

5953

athletics

7536