Should the New York Mets wait another offseason to solidify first base?

That is the logic of former Mets general manager Zack Scott, who believes that there is an even greater first baseman available in free agency next offseason; his plan is in spite of incumbent first baseman Pete Alonso being arguably the best first baseman currently available in free agency.

"As usual, I’m a wet blanket on signing Pete to a big deal," Scott said on X. "Find a short-term

solution, and then go big on Vlad next winter!"

Needless to say, Scott is in favor of going after Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; the 25-year-old slugger is currently set to hit the free agent market during the winter of 2025-26. This would also mean letting Alonso walk in favor of a stopgap first baseman.

Replacing Alonso's bat would be an extremely tough task, as the 30-year-old has been a true stalwart for the Mets since 2019. Despite posting several career-lows in 2024 that includes 34 home runs and a .788 OPS, any team would love that kind of production if that happens to be Alonso's floor. In just six seasons, the slugger has blasted 226 long balls with a .514 slugging percentage, .854 OPS, and a 131 wRC+.

However, Guerrero Jr. has incredible upside that was demonstrated in full during the 2024 season. The 25-year-old returned to the MVP-caliber form he showed three years prior by slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs, 103 RBI, and a 165 wRC+. While it is worth mentioning that the Blue Jays' fearsome slugger struggled to find consistency after his breakout 2021 campaign, Guerrero Jr.'s young age greatly works in his favor; he still has plenty of time to discover how to maintain his success at the plate, especially as he enters his prime.

There are legitimate stopgap options available for the Mets as well. Should they decide to let Alonso walk, they could go after Gold Glovers Christian Walker and Carlos Santana on short-term contracts, with the latter expected to play on a one-year deal due to his advancing age (39).

Nonetheless, a major flaw in Scott's logic of letting Alonso go is that Guerrero Jr. may not even hit free agency at all; the Blue Jays are highly motivated to sign the face of their franchise to a contract extension. But at the same time, after seeing how much Juan Soto got from the Mets themselves on the open market, Guerrero Jr. may have bigger incentive to not sign an extension and become the prize of the 2025-26 free agent class.

Also worth mentioning is the presence of third baseman Mark Vientos, who can move to first base if the Mets aren't able to keep Alonso; however, waiting for Guerrero Jr. would likely mean passing on Alex Bregman this offseason, so a hole would then be created at either first or third base if both Alonso and Guerrero Jr. aren't lured to Queens. As such, there is risk involved in Scott's plan.

If Steve Cohen is still willing to spend after signing Soto to a record-setting contract, then there's no reason to believe either Alonso or Guerrero Jr. wouldn't sign with the Mets. But choosing between the two will be a very difficult decision that also has a brutal worst-case scenario.