Despite the calendar showing it being the peak of hurricane season, the Atlantic has been quiet for weeks. But is that about to change?
* A tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle is likely to form in the central Atlantic in the next day or two.
* Currently, predictions are for the storm to curve north, staying away from Florida and the U.S.
* Another tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa, with a low chance for development.
As you slept, chances have increased for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm to form in the central Atlantic.
And another tropical wave with a low chance for development is moving off the coast of Africa, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form in the central Atlantic in the next day or two, the National Hurricane Center said.
If maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Sept. 16:
Will Invest 92L become Tropical Storm Gabrielle or hurricane?
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 92L a very high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or two as it moves into an area favorable for development.
"This disturbance is very likely to organize into Tropical Storm Gabrielle sometime during the middle or latter part of this work week, and it will likely continue to intensify into a hurricane," according to Fox Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver via email Sept. 15.
"Forecast models are pretty convinced that this storm will make a turn to the north long before the Caribbean Islands, but some impacts can't be totally ruled out at this point. Forecasts for storms that haven't developed yet (like this one) are subject to a little more uncertainty so it's smart to watch. Otherwise, folks in Bermuda most certainly need to keep an eye on this over the next week," Oliver said.
Spaghetti models for Invest 92L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Invest 92L: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Tropical wave in eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Other tropical waves being monitored by National Hurricane Center:
* A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from near the Windward Passage southward to over northern Colombia, moving west at 11 to 17 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted near Jamaica and northern Colombia.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone -- which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane -- could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Are any hurricanes coming to Florida?
Not at this time, but it's too early to tell where Invest 92L or the tropical waves out there will go or who they will impact.
A dip in the jet stream could help protect Florida and the U.S. east coast from any developing storm, Oliver said.
"Forecast models are pretty convinced that this storm will make that turn to the north long before the Caribbean Islands, but some impacts can't be totally ruled out at this point. Forecasts for storms that haven't developed yet (like this one) are subject to a little more uncertainty so it's smart to watch. Otherwise, folks in Bermuda most certainly need to keep an eye on this over the next week.
"We aren't expecting direct Florida impacts from future Gabrielle, but it might look and feel like a tropical storm at times stuck under some of those thunderstorms over the next week. The forecast looks messy," Oliver said.
A weakness in a system of high pressure and a dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the country should deflect the storm out to sea, said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email Sept. 15.
"Bermuda will have to watch this for early next week, as it could potentially threaten Bermuda. But as of right now, this does not appear to be a threat to the United States. The storm hasn't formed yet, so things can still change, but right now, early indications are that this should steer away from the United States and away from Florida, potentially with no impacts at all.
"Now, if the storm really does rapidly intensify north of the (Caribbean) islands, it's possible that there could be some rough surf and rip currents that make their way to Florida sometime next week, but right now, that chance seems pretty low.
"It would have to become a hurricane, a powerful hurricane likely to be able to generate waves that would make it all the way to the United States. It's certainly possible it does that. We see that from time to time, that really strong hurricanes even way out to sea are still able to generate those really powerful waves. So that is going to be something to watch where even if it turns out to sea. If it is still a very strong storm, we could see those impacts along the east coast beaches, including Florida," DaSilva said.
Bottom line: remain vigilant, forecasters emphasized.
Who is likely to be impacted by the other tropical waves out there?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching, while shelves are fully stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
"It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax-free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ Don't have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here's what you need
Here are some of the basics you should have:
* Water
* Non-perishable food
* Two-week supply of medications
* Batteries
* Flashlight
* Cash
* A go-bag with essential supplies in case you need to leave quickly
* Portable cellphone chargers
* Battery-operated radio
* List of emergency phone numbers, including those for family members
* Copy of your insurance policy
Florida weather radar for Sept. 16, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
* (June 20)
* (June 29)
* (July 5)
* : (Aug. 3)
* : (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)
* : (Aug. 23)
* Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
* Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
* Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
* Jerry: JEHR-ee
* Karen: KAIR-ren
* Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
* Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
* Nestor: NES-tor
* Olga: OAL-guh
* Pablo: PAHB-lo
* Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
* Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
* Tanya: TAHN-yuh
* Van: van
* Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
* Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
* Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
* Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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