An early season storm system will bring rain and cooler than normal temperatures to our region out of the weekend. An upper level low will deepen out of a trough already in place over the Pacific Northwest. This low will dig down the coast on Sunday increasing our onshore flow -- keeping temperatures cool and kicking up the wind. The low will be over us on Monday and will help destabilize the atmosphere, leading to scattered showers over the Monterey Bay Area along with the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Temperatures will be cool, especially inland, where they could be as much as 20ºF below normal! As the low moves out Tuesday another lobe of the overall trough will rotate down the coast and could bring another round of rain on Wednesday.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***GALE WARNING***
...in effect until 9PM this evening for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas
*Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.
*Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Rest of Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy with gusty west-northwesterly onshore and up-valley winds at times. Cooler for most areas with coastal highs in the 60s and upper 60s to low 80s inland. The north side of the bay will be warmer than Saturday with temps in the upper 60s to around 70ºF. Can't rule out a few sprinkles, especially late.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with shower chances increasing toward dawn. Lows in the 40s for most areas with a few 40s for southern inland valleys.
Monday: Mostly cloudy early with scattered showers, then becoming partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible and also a very slight chance of a thunderstorm. Gusty west-northwesterly onshore and up-valley winds at times early, then tapering off late.
Extended: Temps head back upward on Tuesday, but then fall again on Wednesday as another system passes through bringing another chance for light rain. High pressure then slowly builds in toward the weekend with highs back above normal by Friday.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 23 - 29 calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of September 15: 57.9ºF
(Historic Sep AVG near Monterey: 59.6ºF) -- *average of 7 buoys