Dabo Swinney should have started every sentence with those three words this past week, thanking the team that upset Miami and pushed the Clemson Tigers into tonight's ACC championship game.
The SMU Mustangs stand in their way after not sniffing a meaningful postseason game since the program received the Death Penalty back in 1987, but my Clemson vs. SMU predictions for December 7 hinge on the more proven team, despite the odds.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with the game airing on ABC.
This spread being within a field goal is a loud endorsement of Clemson playing so close to home, this ACC championship game being held in Charlotte.
If this were a true neutral field, logic would establish SMU as closer to a 4- or 4.5-point favorite. If insisting on a bet on the spread, the only defensible choice is to take the Mustangs at -2.5. It's hard to imagine them winning the game by only one or two points, and that thought process alone suggests value at -2.5.
If it is hard to imagine SMU winning this game by only one or two points, then there is also innate value in the Clemson moneyline at +115. Will the Tigers win? Well, keep reading.
Clemson's last four games against FBS competition have all fallen short of their totals by an average of 8.75 points. Recognize that and know the Tigers have won the turnover battle in three of those games, the fourth being a draw. Continue this train of thought to understand in the four games this year when SMU lost the turnover margin, the Under cashed three times.
Clemson moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
Two simple rhetorical questions can send any discussion of the ACC championship game into an endless spiral: Who is the best team SMU has beaten? Who is the best team Clemson has beaten?
It's not the most flattering debate. Operating by the most recent SP+ rankings, the Mustangs' best win is over No. 18 Louisville, while the Tigers' best win is over No. 26 Virginia Tech. Beyond those decent victories, the next most impressive triumphs are SMU's over No. 36 TCU and Clemson's over No. 47 Pittsburgh.
The ACC's unimpressive majority is the exact reason members from within the conference are suing to exit the conference. In this instance, that unimpressive majority makes it difficult to assess these two teams.
Let's now look at Clemson's most recent loss, falling 17-14 to South Carolina last weekend. Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik led a last-minute 57-yard drive in just 48 seconds to get the Tigers into a ripe position for a game-winning touchdown. He then threw a pass behind running back Phil Mafah, which was corralled for an interception off a deflection.
Of these two's last three months, Clemson playing the Gamecocks that close is the most impressive feat, as backhanded of a compliment as that sounds.
The Tigers won the turnover battle by one last week. Not that notable, but if not for that fluke pick, it would have been by two. As is, Clemson is +14 on turnovers this year. Klubnik has protected the ball this season, throwing just five interceptions on 402 pass attempts.
SMU is just +2 in turnover margin. Charitably, forget about the six-turnover debacle in a 28-27 overtime win against Duke. Nonetheless, the Mustangs have a bit of a turnover problem. Kevin Jennings has thrown six interceptions in the last six games, one every 29 pass attempts.
Somehow, this is a game between two relative unknowns, at least unknowns at a certain level of competition. What is known is it can be easily assumed Clemson will force at least one interception.
That is enough found value in the plus-money beauty of the Tigers' moneyline, and it does not even delve into the big-play necessities of the Mustangs' offense -- something Clemson likely will limit thanks to the No. 27 defensive success rate in the country, per cfb-graphs.
If SMU is turning over the ball, Clemson will gladly take advantage as best it knows how. The Tigers throw the ball 5% more often than the average team would in a given game state. That is a credit to Klubnik.
He's thrown at least three touchdowns in seven of 12 games this season, two of the exceptions coming against Georgia and South Carolina, both distinctly better defenses than SMU's.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dabo Swinney is 8-1 in the ACC championship game as Clemson head coach, the one loss coming in 2009, his first season. Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs SMU.