Skyscrapers on the skyline from the offices of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday, Nov. 25, 2024.

European Central Bank policymakers are set to hold their last meeting of the year on Thursday, with expectations firmly set for the fourth quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut of 2024.

Such a move would take the deposit facility -- its most closely-watched rate -- to 3%. The rate had been held at 4% since Sept. 2023, prior to the first cut of the current easing cycle in June 2024.

It appears unlikely that a trim of 50 basis points could be in store, even after headline inflation settled near the ECB's 2% target, while growth indicators show continued signs of deterioration in the euro zone's big manufacturing economies, including in Germany.

The ECB has done little to sway market predictions of a smaller trim. The European central bank has firmly guided expectations this year, unlike the Federal Reserve, which surprised many with its 50-basis-point rate cut in September, and the Bank of England, which has left market-watchers guessing due to its divided committee.

A recent uptick in negotiated wage growth and persistence in service sector inflation have solidified expectations for the 25-basis-point move.

Two key details will be in focus: firstly, staff macroeconomic projections for growth and inflation, which were last delivered in September. Secondly, whether the ECB will modify its consistent messaging that it will "keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary."

Any dovish shift in that language will be seen to support a swifter pace of rate cuts next year, especially given the potential for looming trade tensions with the U.S. The euro zone's weak growth outlook and global uncertainty have already led many analysts to update their forecasts to suggest 25-basis-point cuts at every ECB meeting until September 2025, taking the deposit facility to 1.5%.