In Downing Street last week, I asked the Prime Minister whether he owed an apology to Anas Sarwar.
A few years ago, it looked certain that the keys to Bute House would be handed to the Scottish Labour leader. It had been a turbulent time for the SNP and the party was heading for disaster.
Scottish Labour, on the other hand, was on an emphatic comeback, winning 37 MPs in last year's general election while the SNP fell to nine.
But after 15 months of Sir Keir Starmer, the future no longer looks that bright for Anas Sarwar.
Inside No 10, I reminded the Prime Minister he was now less popular than Donald Trump in the polls.
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Starmer was flanked by Sarwar, Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and a handful of senior advisers from Westminster and Holyrood.
The Prime Minister laughed off the question about whether he should apologise to the man he wants to be Scotland's next first minister.
He said: "The last time the Scottish lobby asked me questions about polling was the Monday before the Hamilton by-election, where I think what was put to me was 'polling firms say you're going to lose badly, what are you going to do about it?'."
Sarwar jumped in to note that was a Labour victory, with favoured local Davy Russell beating the SNP and Reform UK.
Starmer added: "We've got a mandate to run to 2029, we've got a huge majority and we're going to get on with the job."
Pointing to Sarwar, he said: "And we're going to get this man installed to run the Scottish Government."
The polling Starmer wants to dismiss puts his Scottish party in a fierce battle for second place with Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
Ipsos found in September that 20% of Scots have a favourable opinion of the US president, while just 16% say the same about the Prime Minister.
And for the first time, a Survation poll, carried out for the IPPR think tank this weekend, put Reform second in Scotland with 22 MSPs, while Labour trailed with 19.
If that polling is correct and Reform places ahead of Labour, Starmer's position surely becomes untenable.
If he does not want to listen to the polls, parliamentarians told the Daily Record that Starmer cannot survive a defeat in May's Holyrood election, describing it as "the final nail in his coffin".
Another insider urged Sarwar to distance himself from Starmer, who they say is now on "borrowed time".
Those are damning assessments from parliamentarians who once hailed Starmer's victory as groundbreaking.
Labour also suffered a historic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election in Wales at the weekend, where Plaid Cymru stormed to victory.
But it is not just the fact that this was once a Labour safe seat that spells disaster for Starmer. It is that his party fell to third on 11%, while Reform UK placed second on 36%.
Starmer clearly recognises just how crucial Scotland is to his future at the helm of government. There are now more than a dozen Scots in Cabinet, junior ministerial posts or as parliamentary private secretaries (PPS).
The half a dozen Scottish PPS -- who become the eyes and ears of government on the backbenches -- will be crucial to government, particularly ahead of the Chancellor's Budget on Wednesday November 26.
But will they feed back the true reality facing Starmer -- that he cannot survive a Holyrood defeat?