'Getting back to a calmer trading environment would set the stage for more bullish patterns to develop,' says Frank Cappelleri, founder of independent research firm CappThesis
Stocks have been on a volatile ride this month, with the S&P 500 bursting back from its early August slump with more sharp moves higher than any month since last year, according to independent research firm CappThesis.
Monday marked the S&P 500's fifth daily gain of at least 1% so far in August, the most for a calendar month since June 2023, said Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, in a note Tuesday.
The S&P 500's recent cluster of "big moves" emerged in a bounce from its early August selloff, with positive breadth in eight out of the 10 trading days since Aug. 6, according to CappThesis. While megacap growth stocks led gains, they had "plenty of company this time," said Cappelleri.
The steep rebound for the S&P 500 has brought the U.S.-large-cap stock index to positive territory for August, after fresh economic data reduced investor anxieties that had surfaced early this month over a softening labor market. For example, the Department of Commerce last week released a report on U.S. retail sales in July that was stronger than Wall Street expected.
"We're okay" with the S&P 500's five sharp gains so far in August, "given it was in response to the preceding near-10% decline," Cappelleri said. But "getting back to a calmer trading environment would set the stage for more bullish patterns to develop."
The S&P 500 closed Monday with a 1% rise, logging an eighth straight day of gains to clinch its longest winning streak since Nov. 8, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The widely followed benchmark SPX finished Tuesday 0.2% lower, but remained up 1.4% for the month, FactSet data show.
The U.S. stock market has been on a strong bullish run even with August's stumble.
The S&P 500 has climbed 17.3% so far in 2024, after jumping 24.2% last year. The index ended Tuesday just 1.2% below its all-time closing high of 5,667.20 on July 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
-Christine Idzelis
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