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Powell Declares Unemployment, Not Inflation, as Fed's Top Concern

By James Hyerczyk

Powell Declares Unemployment, Not Inflation, as Fed's Top Concern

The Fed Chair noted a "considerable" cooling in the labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% - nearly a full percentage point above its early 2023 level. Powell stressed, "We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor-market conditions," indicating a strong commitment to maintaining employment levels.

Powell's remarks have significantly increased expectations for rate cuts. Traders are now pricing in a one-in-three chance of a half-percentage-point rate cut at the September meeting, with at least one such cut expected before year-end.

The impact was immediate, with U.S. stocks jumping and Treasury yields dropping after Powell's speech. The S&P 500 gained about 1%, approaching a record high, while the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.

The Fed's pivot from battling inflation to safeguarding the job market is clear. Powell emphasized, "We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability." This shift opens a new chapter for the central bank, potentially influencing its policy decisions in the coming months.

Given Powell's dovish tone and the Fed's clear prioritization of the labor market, we anticipate a bullish outlook for equities in the short term. The potential for aggressive rate cuts could fuel further market gains, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates.

For fixed income, expectations of rate cuts are likely to drive bond prices higher and yields lower. Forex traders should be prepared for potential dollar weakness as the interest rate differential with other major currencies narrows.

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