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Trading stocks day in and out can be a tiresome gamble, and is the antithesis of passive investing. That's why I'd rather adopt the 'buy right and hold tight' strategy when it comes to stocks that shower investors with meaningful cash flow.
Such stocks can be found in REITs, BDCs, and MLPs, which carry tax-favored structures that are designed to pass through their income to investors, and carry attributes such as steady income, potential for long-term growth, lower risk, and inflation hedges.
This brings me to Plains All American (NASDAQ:PAA), which fits the bill as a reliable dividend (also known as distributions) payer for conservative investors. PAA has always been a stock that seemed just out of reach for me given the availability of bigger names out there like Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and MPLX LP (MPLX).
With the recent downturn in price, as shown below, I believe it presents an opportune time for investors to layer into the stock. In this article, I explore the company including its most recent quarterly results, and discuss why this 7.3% yielding stock should be on investors' radar, so let's get started!
Plains All American issues a K-1 and is an energy midstream company that owns a large network of pipelines, transporting over 8 million barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas liquids. As shown below, PAA's assets are diversified across the Permian Basin, Canada and Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, and South Texas / Gulf Coast, as shown below.
PAA has been demonstrating steadily improving results driven by strong demand, and this has resulted in total return outperformance over the past 12 months. As shown below, PAA's 23.5% total return bested the 19.6% of the S&P 500 (SPY) and 16% of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), while MPLX LP (MPLX) has produced a better return of 27%.
PAA continues to execute well, achieving adjusted EBTIDA of $674 million during Q2 2024, exceeding expectations. This was driven by benefit of higher tariff volumes and market based opportunities in the crude oil segment. PAA's NGL segment also saw favorable spreads and experienced lower than expected operating expenses. While PAA expects some of these cost savings to reverse in the second half of the year, they expect to remain disciplined in cost management.
As shown below, both crude oil pipeline tariff and gathering volumes have meaningfully risen over the past two years, resulting in adjusted EBITDA growing by 7.5% for this segment over this timeframe.
Also encouraging, management raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $75 million to $2.75 billion at the midpoint, supported by its strong year-to-date performance and contributions from the eight bolt-on acquisition it's made since 2022 for a total investment of $535 million. These acquisitions complement PAA's existing assets and enhance its growth profile.
PAA continues to be focused on value-added acquisitions including acquiring an additional 0.7% stake in the Wink to Webster pipeline for $20 million. It's also seeking to gain more exposure to fee-based business, resulting in steady revenue streams, as noted by management during the recent conference call:
What I would say is, we're not going to give forward guidance on the NGL segment, but we've entered into 15-plus year contract, which has replaced roughly a third of our frac spread exposure.
We're investing $150 million to $200 million to replace that business with gathering, fractionation, storage, transportation. So, it's going to look just like an integrated NGL value chain, which we already have.
What you see us doing by going to more fee based starts to flatten that saddle out a little bit. I think there will always be seasonal opportunities, but everything we're doing, as Jeremy pointed out, going to more fee based.
Importantly, PAA carries a strong balance sheet with a BBB credit ratings from S&P and Fitch. This is supported by $3.2 billion in liquidity and a low debt to equity ratio of 3.1x, putting it more or less on par with that of Enterprise Products Partners.
This lends support to the 7.3% distribution yield, which is very well protected by a 190% DCF-to-Distribution coverage ratio, sitting higher than that of EPD and MPLX. PAA grew its annual dividend rate by $0.20 per share this year to $1.27 and targets $0.15 per share annual raises until a 160% coverage ratio is reached.
PAA appears to be bargain priced after the recent drop to $17.28 with a Price-to-Cash Flow of 5.6x. As shown below, this sits well below that of peers EPD and MPLX's 7.7x and 7.4x, respectively.
I believe PAA is deserving of a higher multiple in the 6-8x range considering its strong fundamentals, expected cash flow growth, strong balance sheet, and well-covered and growing distribution.
Risks to the thesis include potential for an economic downturn, which may temporarily reduce demand for its customers. Moreover, cost inflation due to a strong labor market can impact margins. PAA also carries risks from unforeseen events such as warmer-than-expected weather, which may also reduce demand and safety breaches could result in environmental liabilities and service disruptions. In addition, swings in commodity prices may also affect PAA's stock price despite its mostly fee-based cash flows. Also, higher interest rates may result in a dip in dividend stocks including PAA and also raise its cost of capital.
Plains All American presents an attractive buying opportunity on the dip for income-focused investors, offering a well-covered 7.3% distribution yield and a strong balance sheet. With diversified assets across key regions and a strategic shift toward more fee-based business, PAA is positioned for steady growth.
Lastly, PAA's recent performance, acquisition strategy, and bargain valuation relative to peers suggest it could provide meaningful long-term returns, making it a compelling choice for conservative investors seeking reliable and growing cash flow.