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Former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever recently claimed that a major change is on the horizon of artificial intelligence. Accepting a "Test Of Time" award for his 2014 paper with Oriol Vinyals and Quoc Le on Friday, December 13, he claimed that reasoning capabilities will make the technology far less predictable. He discussed how an idea his team had explored a decade ago regarding scaling data to new heights for pre-training AI systems, has begun to reach its limits. As such, more data and computing power had resulted in ChatGPT which OpenAI launched in 2022.
"But pre-training as we know it will unquestionably end. While compute is growing, the data is not growing, because we have but one internet".
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Speaking of its limits, Sutskever also proposed some ways of breaking new ground, such as technology itself generating new data, or AI models evaluating multiple answers before choosing the best response for a user, to improve accuracy. He further went on to predict a future of super-intelligent, self-aware AI capable of reasoning like humans, forecasting that the long-awaited AI agents will eventually become a reality in this advanced era.
As such, AI leaders are now hinting that the generative AI revolution is entering a new phase, with advanced foundation models poised to bring reasoning and long-term thinking to AI capabilities.
"We're in the beginnings of this generative AI revolution as we all know. And we're at the beginning of a new generation of foundation models that are able to do reasoning and able to do long thinking."
Long thinking enables AI models to take more time to "think over" the results they generate for us, and are an effort to bring AI into System 2. System 2, a term popularized by Daniel Kahneman in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow", represents a mode of thinking that is slow, deliberate, analytical, and demanding conscious effort.
As these capabilities develop further, AI is expected to move beyond its current applications in different sectors to intensely impact fields like medicine, research, and education, as evidenced by OpenAI's recent advancements and their practical benefits in accelerating scientific discovery.