WASHINGTON - The election of Donald Trump as president for a second time and the Republican takeback of the U.S. Senate could undo many of the national climate policies that are most reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, according to climate solutions experts.
When they list measures that are making the most difference, it lines up with policies and agencies Trump has said he'll target: President Joe Biden's landmark climate law, which is funneling money to energy measures that combat climate change, plus rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to limit leaks of the powerful climate pollutant methane, pollution from coal-fired power plants, and tailpipe emissions from cars and trucks.
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The changes come as more lives are being lost in heat waves, record amounts of climate pollution are accumulating in the atmosphere, the United States has been hit with what may be two of the most expensive hurricanes on record and nations, who will meet in Baku, Azerbaijan next week for climate negotiations, have failed to take strong action to change these realities.
Trump, who has cast climate change as a "hoax," withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement during his first term. He has vowed to do so again, calling the global plan to reduce carbon emissions unenforceable and a gift to China and other big polluters. Trump also vows to end subsidies for wind power that were included in the landmark 2022 climate law. He has said he will eliminate regulations by the Biden administration to increase the energy efficiency of lightbulbs, stoves, dishwashers and shower heads.
Trump has summed up his energy policy as "drill, baby, drill" and pledged to dismantle what he calls Democrats' "green new scam" in favor of boosting production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, the main causes of climate change.
Dan Jasper, a senior policy advisor at Project Drawdown, said he also expects to see "significant rollbacks of climate policy at the national level," but that climate action will continue to move forward at the state and local level. And, he said, repealing parts of the climate law could backfire because most of the investments and jobs are in Republican congressional districts. These were expected to reduce U.S. emissions by about 40% by 2030, if the law was enacted as planned in the coming years.
In a call Wednesday morning, Scott Segal, head of a communications group at the law firm Bracewell LLP, which represents the energy industry, said the climate law is not likely to be repealed.
If Trump does target the climate law, there are provisions that are likely safe. One is a credit given to companies in advanced manufacturing, because it is perceived as "America first and pro-U.S. business," said David Shepheard, partner and energy expert at the global consultant Baringa. These policies will likely survive even the most extreme shift in climate policy, he added.
Far more vulnerable is a rule from the EPA, announced in April, that would force many coal-fired power plants to capture 90% of their carbon emissions or shut down within eight years, Shepheard said. The EPA analysis projected it would reduce roughly 1.38 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide through 2047, along with tens of thousands of tons of other harmful air pollutants.
Under a Trump presidency, it is unlikely to survive, Shepheard said.
Trump's victory means the Justice Department is unlikely to defend EPA rules restricting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and oil rigs. Industry groups and Republican-controlled states have filed legal challenges to a host of EPA rules.
While it is unclear who will head the EPA under Trump, the agency is considered likely to begin a lengthy process to repeal and replace a host of standards imposed by Biden with looser regulations, including one for tailpipe emissions that Trump falsely calls an electric vehicle "mandate.'' Trump rolled back more than 100 environmental laws as president and that number is likely to grow in a second term.
Trump is almost certain to reinstate drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, continuing a partisan battle that has persisted for decades. Biden and other Democratic presidents have blocked drilling in the sprawling refuge, which is home to polar bears, caribou and other wildlife. Trump reinstated the drilling program in a 2017 tax cut law enacted by congressional Republicans. Even so, no drilling has occurred in the refuge.
"Elections have consequences. And in the immediate term, we're going to see a host of programmatic impacts on climate," Zara Ahmed, who leads policy analysis and science strategy at Carbon Direct, said Wednesday.
She predicted a rollback of proposed and existing regulations, a retreat from U.S. leadership on climate including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and changes to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Ahmed added that while there may be an abdication of leadership at the federal level on climate, she's optimistic that states including California continue to lead on setting standards, pushing for disclosure of emissions and driving decarbonization.
Clean Air Task Force Executive Director Armond Cohen agreed on Wednesday that states, cities, utilities and businesses that have committed to net zero emissions will keep working toward those goals, which will continue to drive record installations of wind and solar energy. Governors of both parties are also interested in ramping up nuclear energy as a carbon-free source of electricity, Cohen said.
Trump has said he too is interested in developing the next generation of nuclear reactors that are smaller than traditional reactors.
Gina McCarthy, a former EPA administrator who was Biden's first national climate adviser, said Trump will be unable to stop clean energy such as wind, solar and geothermal power.
"No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country is not turning back,'' McCarthy said. Advocates for clean energy are bipartisan, well-organized "and fully prepared to deliver climate solutions, boost local economies, and drive climate ambition,' she said. "We cannot and will not let Trump stand in the way of giving our kids and grandkids the freedom to grow up in safer and healthier communities.''
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McDermott reported from Providence, R.I.
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