HOUSTON - There's not a simple answer to this question.

It really all depends on a concoction of supply, demand, if the sun is out and if there's any unexpected outages at the power plants.

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That's a lot, right?

Before we dig into all the details, here's the thoughts from Doug Lewin, a Texas power grid expert.

"I don't think so. I still think we're looking at pretty low probabilities of that happening," Lewin, the author or the Texas Energy and Power Newsletter. "I will say I think this is the tightest that I've seen it this year."

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Now that we know that, let's take a look at how you at home can understand that concoction and what triggers those unwanted controlled power outages.

For starters, ERCOT maintains the statement that the grid conditions for Thursday are still in good standing.

"At this time, the grid is operating under normal conditions and ERCOT expects adequate supply to meet demand," a spokesperson told KPRC 2 on Wednesday.

What Causes Controlled Power Outages

There's no simple answer, but the most likely in this scenario would be too much demand for electricity and not enough supply going onto the grid.

ERCOT updates its grid conditions frequently for the public to see. You can check them out here.

When the lines on the demand and supply graph get really close together, that indicates there's a dwindling amount of electric reserves available.

"They do think that ERCOT is forecasting that we would have enough supply at that point in time," Lewin said. "I think that's probably right. The supply that they're forecasting is without some of the backup reserves that are behind it. So, when you look there and you see a buffer of 4,000 or 5000 MW, there is more behind that, which leads me to believe we probably won't have outages. And if we did, they would not be very deep. They really would be able to roll."

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If that reserve number dips below a certain level, it triggers certain steps that ERCOT takes, which include controlled outages.

ERCOT updated these levels, known as Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) levels, in 2023. Here's how they breakdown:

EEA 1 will occur if reserves reach 2,500 MW (previously 2,300 MW) and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes.EEA 2 will occur if reserves reach 2,000 MW (previously 1,750 MW) and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes, or if frequency has dropped below 59.91 Hz for 15 minutes (previously 30 minutes).EEA 3 will occur if reserves drop below 1,500 MW and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes, or if frequency drops below 59.8 Hz for any period of time. If either situation occurs, ERCOT would require Transmission and Distribution Service Providers (TDSPs) to implement controlled outages, which impact residential, commercial, and industrial users. (Previously, an EEA 3 was issued when ERCOT's operating reserves dropped below 1,430 MW. When operating reserves dropped below 1,000 MW, and were not expected to recover within 30 minutes, controlled outages were activated.)

The quick answer to your question is: if the operating reserves drop below 1,500 MW of electricity, we'll start seeing rolling blackouts through the entire ERCOT grid.

So, How Will This Freeze Impact The Grid?

We won't know until it's all said and done.

However, ERCOT has forecasts that reach six days into the future.

The forecast for Thursday, which updates frequently, has called for electric reserves as low as 2,700 MW, which is near the first level of Energy Emergency Alert Level 1.

For the sake of not being able to constantly update the current forecast level, here's a direct link to the six day forecast ERCOT provides for supply and demand. Here you can see the forecast for every quarter hour over the next six days.

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"I do think that it is accurate at this time. I don't expect that to shift markedly before tomorrow," Lewin said. "Obviously, the variables are power plant outages, natural gas supply outages and temperatures. Right? And how high demand goes. But, if none of those things change in a major way based on current data, it should be all right."

What is for sure, the electric reserves will be close enough for discomfort and likely the lowest we'll see this entire winter season.

Will I Know If A Controlled Outage Is Going To Happen?

Yes! ERCOT will start issuing advisories to the public as soon as reserve levels drop into the emergency range.

You can get those updates directly to your phone by downloading the Click2Houston mobile app and enabling breaking news notifications.

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